On FEMA’s figures, few U.S. towns expect more hazard damage per building than Toro Canyon, led by wildfire
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Toro Canyon gets a D− for hazard risk: among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns. Most of that expected damage is wildfire (27%), then earthquakes (26%). FEMA’s files show no paid flood insurance claims here.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Toro Canyon faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
River and rain flooding
Landslides
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Toro Canyon’s grade
Wildfire is 27% of the building damage FEMA expects in Toro Canyon, and Toro Canyon’s rate of wildfire damage is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts. Earthquakes add 26%, at a rate in the top 5% of U.S. census tracts.
D− among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns (21,298).
Toro Canyon’s residents live in 2 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $7.5M a year in losses across Toro Canyon: $5.9M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Toro Canyon flood? No paid flood claims on record
FEMA’s records show no paid flood insurance claims in Toro Canyon. That’s not a promise: most homes don’t carry flood insurance, so small floods go unrecorded.
Toro Canyon isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Santa Barbara County.The storms Toro Canyon remembers
None of the 32 disasters declared for Santa Barbara County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Toro Canyon itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.
Santa Barbara County has had 32 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Also 8 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Santa Barbara County, 2004–2021.
Toro Canyon and its neighbors
Toro Canyon is 4th of the 4 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montecito | D−more damage than 98% | river and rain flooding | 56 |
| Carpinteria | D−among the highest damage | earthquakes | 30 |
| Summerland | D−among the highest damage | wildfire | — |
| Toro Canyon | D−among the highest damage | wildfire | 0 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Toro Canyon faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Clear dead leaves and brush within 5 feet of the house.
- Sign up for local alerts and know two ways out.
- Keep N95 masks for smoky days.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Watch for new cracks, tilting trees or suddenly muddy streams after heavy rain.
- Stay off steep slopes in a downpour.
- Leave if you hear rumbling upslope.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Toro Canyon
Is Toro Canyon at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Toro Canyon has among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk. Most of the expected damage is wildfire (27%) and earthquakes (26%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Is Toro Canyon in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Santa Barbara County, 27% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 1.9% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Toro Canyon?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Toro Canyon’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
Is Toro Canyon at risk from wildfire?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (27%), and Toro Canyon’s rate for it is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Toro Canyon.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Toro Canyon’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.