Photo: Beyond My Ken · CC BY-SA 4.0More hazard damage per building is expected in San Juan Capistrano than in 98% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, San Juan Capistrano gets a D− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 98% of U.S. towns, #698 of 847 in California. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (73%), then earthquakes (15%). Flood insurance has paid 17 claims here since 1982.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What stands out about San Juan Capistrano’s natural hazards
From FEMA’s model and FEMA’s records, below.
What San Juan Capistrano faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Earthquakes
Wildfire
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind San Juan Capistrano’s grade
River and rain flooding is 73% of the building damage FEMA expects in San Juan Capistrano, and San Juan Capistrano’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is in the top 2% of U.S. census tracts. Wildfire adds 12%, at a rate in the top 2% of U.S. census tracts.
D− #698 of 847 in California; higher expected damage per building than 98% of U.S. towns (21,298).
San Juan Capistrano’s residents live in 11 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical California town has higher expected damage than 92% of U.S. towns; within the state, San Juan Capistrano has more expected damage per building than 82% of California towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $37.3M a year in losses across San Juan Capistrano: $35.7M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does San Juan Capistrano flood? Sometimes: 17 flood claims since 1982
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in San Juan Capistrano, from FEMA’s records: 1.3 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 72% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- The Pineapple Express - Southern4 claims · $15K
- The Winter storm1 claim · $10K
San Juan Capistrano is in FEMA’s Community Rating System (class 8) for its flood-proofing work.
Insurance rates: Orange County.4 federal disasters brought FEMA money to San Juan Capistrano
Disasters that paid out in San Juan Capistrano itself (aid to households or repair grants to the City of San Juan Capistrano), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2017Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides$207K to the City of San Juan Capistrano for repairs
- 2010Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Debris and Mud Flows$177K to the City of San Juan Capistrano for repairs10 flood claims paid that year
- 2005Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mud and Debris Flows$3.2M to the City of San Juan Capistrano for repairs
- 2004Severe Storms, Flooding, Debris Flows, and Mudslides12 households applied for aid$18K aid approved$1.1M to the City of San Juan Capistrano for repairs
Orange County has had 27 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Also 11 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Orange County, 2002–2022.
Old photos of San Juan Capistrano after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the San Juan Capistrano archive →San Juan Capistrano and its neighbors
San Juan Capistrano is 6th of the 7 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laguna Niguel | Cmore damage than 73% | river and rain flooding | 5 |
| San Clemente | Cmore damage than 74% | river and rain flooding | 57 |
| Ladera Ranch | Dmore damage than 86% | river and rain flooding | — |
| Dana Point | Dmore damage than 89% | river and rain flooding | 26 |
| Mission Viejo | Dmore damage than 89% | river and rain flooding | 14 |
| San Juan Capistrano | D−more damage than 98% | river and rain flooding | 17 |
| Rancho Mission Viejo | D−among the highest damage | wildfire | — |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what San Juan Capistrano faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Clear dead leaves and brush within 5 feet of the house.
- Sign up for local alerts and know two ways out.
- Keep N95 masks for smoky days.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
- San Juan Capistrano residents get 10% off flood insurance.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in San Juan Capistrano
Is San Juan Capistrano at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, San Juan Capistrano has higher expected damage per building than 98% of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk, #698 of 847 in California. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (73%) and earthquakes (15%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does San Juan Capistrano flood?
Flood insurance has paid 17 claims in San Juan Capistrano since 1982, $188K in all, or 1.3 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 72% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. 1 properties have flooded more than once. The most claims came from Pineapple Express - Southern (4).
Is San Juan Capistrano in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Orange County, 19% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 1.0% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in San Juan Capistrano?
San Juan Capistrano is in FEMA’s Community Rating System (class 8), which takes 10% off federal flood insurance policies for its flood-proofing work. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in San Juan Capistrano?
By FEMA money that reached San Juan Capistrano, Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mud and Debris Flows (2005): $3.2M to the City of San Juan Capistrano for repairs. By flood claims, Pineapple Express - Southern: 4 paid, $15K.
Is San Juan Capistrano at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (73%), and San Juan Capistrano’s rate for it is in the top 2% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in San Juan Capistrano.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where San Juan Capistrano’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.