Photo: Publichall · CC BY-SA 3.0FEMA puts Merced’s expected hazard damage per building above that of 84% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Merced gets a C− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 84% of U.S. towns, #204 of 847 in California. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (76%), then earthquakes (24%). Flood insurance has paid 147 claims here since 1982.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What stands out about Merced’s natural hazards
From FEMA’s model and FEMA’s records, below.
What Merced faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Earthquakes
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Merced’s grade
River and rain flooding is 76% of the building damage FEMA expects in Merced, and Merced’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is higher than 87% of U.S. census tracts. Next is earthquakes at 24% (higher than 85% of U.S. census tracts).
C− #204 of 847 in California; higher expected damage per building than 84% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Merced’s residents live in 24 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical California town has higher expected damage than 92% of U.S. towns; within the state, Merced has less expected damage per building than 76% of California towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $35.0M a year in losses across Merced: $28.8M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Merced flood? Yes: 147 flood claims since 1982
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Merced, from FEMA’s records: 4.9 per 1,000 homes, more than 60% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- The California Atmospheric River61 claims · $4.3M
- The Pineapple Express - Southern36 claims · $1.2M
Merced isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Merced County.5 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Merced
Disasters that paid out in Merced itself (aid to households or repair grants to the City of Merced), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2023Severe Winter Storms, Straight-line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides$395K to the City of Merced for repairs62 flood claims paid that year
- 2022Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides2,185 households applied for aid$3.0M aid approved$2.4M to the City of Merced for repairs1 flood claim paid that year
- 2017Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides$18K to the City of Merced for repairs
- 2017Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides$89K to the City of Merced for repairs
- 2006Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides$54K to the City of Merced for repairs24 flood claims paid that year
Merced County has had 16 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Old photos of Merced after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Merced archive →Merced and its neighbors
Merced is 2nd of the 2 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin | C−more damage than 79% | river and rain flooding | — |
| Merced | C−more damage than 84% | river and rain flooding | 147 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Merced faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Merced
Is Merced at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Merced has higher expected damage per building than 84% of U.S. towns: C− for hazard risk, #204 of 847 in California. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (76%) and earthquakes (24%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Merced flood?
Flood insurance has paid 147 claims in Merced since 1982, $6.6M in all, or 4.9 per 1,000 homes, more than 60% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. 3 properties have flooded more than once. The most claims came from California Atmospheric River (61).
Is Merced in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Merced County, 24% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 5.2% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Merced?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Merced’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Merced?
By FEMA money that reached Merced, Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (2022): 2,185 households applied for aid, $3.0M approved, and $2.4M to the City of Merced for repairs. By flood claims, California Atmospheric River: 61 paid, $4.3M.
Is Merced at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (76%), and Merced’s rate for it is higher than 87% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Merced.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Merced’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.