Photo: David Balmer · CC BY 3.0More hazard damage per building is expected in Carmel Valley Village than in 97% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Carmel Valley Village gets a D− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 97% of U.S. towns, #687 of 847 in California. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (66%), then earthquakes (19%). Flood insurance has paid 21 claims here since 1998.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What stands out about Carmel Valley Village’s natural hazards
From FEMA’s model and FEMA’s records, below.
What Carmel Valley Village faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Earthquakes
Wildfire
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Carmel Valley Village’s grade
River and rain flooding is 66% of the building damage FEMA expects in Carmel Valley Village, and Carmel Valley Village’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is in the top 3% of U.S. census tracts. Wildfire adds 13%, at a rate in the top 2% of U.S. census tracts.
D− #687 of 847 in California; higher expected damage per building than 97% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Carmel Valley Village’s residents live in 2 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical California town has higher expected damage than 92% of U.S. towns; within the state, Carmel Valley Village has more expected damage per building than 81% of California towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $6.9M a year in losses across Carmel Valley Village: $6.5M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Carmel Valley Village flood? Sometimes: 21 flood claims since 1998
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Carmel Valley Village, from FEMA’s records: 9.1 per 1,000 homes, more than 72% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- The California Atmospheric River10 claims · $950K
- The Pineapple Express - Southern2 claims · $9K
Carmel Valley Village isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Monterey County.2 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Carmel Valley Village
Disasters that paid out in Carmel Valley Village itself (aid to households or repair grants to Carmel Valley Village), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2023Severe Winter Storms, Straight-line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides3 households applied for aid$9K aid approved10 flood claims paid that year
- 2020Wildfires2 households applied for aid$500 aid approved
Monterey County has had 26 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Also 4 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Monterey County, 2008–2020.
Old photos of Carmel Valley Village after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Carmel Valley Village archive →Get ready for what Carmel Valley Village faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Clear dead leaves and brush within 5 feet of the house.
- Sign up for local alerts and know two ways out.
- Keep N95 masks for smoky days.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Carmel Valley Village
Is Carmel Valley Village at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Carmel Valley Village has higher expected damage per building than 97% of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk, #687 of 847 in California. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (66%) and earthquakes (19%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Carmel Valley Village flood?
Flood insurance has paid 21 claims in Carmel Valley Village since 1998, $1.4M in all, or 9.1 per 1,000 homes, more than 72% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. The most claims came from California Atmospheric River (10).
Is Carmel Valley Village in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Monterey County, 23% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 1.1% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Carmel Valley Village?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Carmel Valley Village’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Carmel Valley Village?
By FEMA money that reached Carmel Valley Village, Severe Winter Storms, Straight-line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (2023): 3 households applied for aid, $9K approved. By flood claims, California Atmospheric River: 10 paid, $950K.
Is Carmel Valley Village at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (66%), and Carmel Valley Village’s rate for it is in the top 3% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Carmel Valley Village.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Carmel Valley Village’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.