Photo: Gage Skidmore · CC BY-SA 3.0More hazard damage per building is expected in Surprise than in 65% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Surprise gets a C+ for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 65% of U.S. towns, #44 of 140 in Arizona. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (93%). Flood insurance has paid 1 claim here since 2003.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Surprise faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Surprise’s grade
River and rain flooding is 93% of the building damage FEMA expects in Surprise, and Surprise’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is higher than 82% of U.S. census tracts. Wildfire adds 3%, at a rate in the top 8% of U.S. census tracts.
C+ #44 of 140 in Arizona; higher expected damage per building than 65% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Surprise’s residents live in 33 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical Arizona town has higher expected damage than 78% of U.S. towns; within the state, Surprise has less expected damage per building than 69% of Arizona towns.
Among the 400 U.S. cities of 100,000 or more, Surprise has higher expected damage per building than 57% (#227 of 400). Because it is so big, its total expected yearly loss, $65.2M, is the 188th largest of those 400.
Does Surprise flood? Rarely: 1 flood claim since 2003
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Surprise, from FEMA’s records: 0.0 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 100% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Surprise isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Maricopa County.1 federal disaster brought FEMA money to Surprise
Disasters that paid out in Surprise itself (aid to households or repair grants to the City of Surprise), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2014Severe Storms and Flooding$296K to the City of Surprise for repairs
Its 2 counties have had 12 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often floods, then severe storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Also 11 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in its 2 counties, 2005–2024.
Old photos of Surprise after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Surprise archive →Surprise and its neighbors
Surprise is 2nd of the 7 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buckeye | B−less damage than 55% | river and rain flooding | 35 |
| Surprise | C+more damage than 65% | river and rain flooding | 1 |
| Sun City | Cmore damage than 71% | river and rain flooding | 1 |
| Glendale | Cmore damage than 72% | river and rain flooding | 51 |
| Peoria | C−more damage than 82% | river and rain flooding | 11 |
| Sun City West | C−more damage than 84% | river and rain flooding | 1 |
| El Mirage | Dmore damage than 91% | river and rain flooding | 1 |
| Wittmann | — | 631 residents; we grade 1,000+ | |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Surprise faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Surprise
Is Surprise at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Surprise has higher expected damage per building than 65% of U.S. towns: C+ for hazard risk, #44 of 140 in Arizona. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (93%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Surprise flood?
Flood insurance has paid 1 claim in Surprise since 2003, $15K in all, or 0.0 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 100% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Is Surprise in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Maricopa County, 29% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.6% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Surprise?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Surprise’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Surprise?
By FEMA money that reached Surprise, Severe Storms and Flooding (2014): $296K to the City of Surprise for repairs.
Is Surprise at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (93%), and Surprise’s rate for it is higher than 82% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Surprise.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Surprise’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.