Photo: Gage Skidmore · CC BY-SA 3.0Surprise reaches 100° on about 115 days a year, more than all but 41 U.S. towns
A typical July afternoon reaches 105°, a January night drops to 41°, and snow is almost unheard of.
A year in Surprise at a glance
Each month’s typical high and low, and what it brings.
What stands out about Surprise’s climate
Compared with towns across the U.S., with Surprise’s place in Arizona beside it.
What a year in Surprise feels like
Typical highs and lows by season and by month, from NOAA’s 30-year normals.
About 331 frost-free days a year
In half of years the last 32° night comes by January 20 and the first by December 15. Frost and day counts come from NOAA’s station at Youngtown, AZ, 10 miles from the city’s center point, 250 ft lower.
The 2023 USDA map puts Surprise’s center in zone 9b: the coldest night of a typical winter, averaged over 1991–2020, reaches about 28°. Plant labels use the zone; frost dates tell you when to plant.
Freezing nights by month
Average nights at or below 32°
90° days by month
Average days at 90° or more
About 8 inches of rain a year
March is the wettest month and June the driest. Rain falls on about 31 days a year. Snow is rare: about 0.0" in a normal year at Youngtown, AZ, so most winters see none.
Rain + melted snow by month
Inches of water
Heating and cooling a home in Surprise
26% of the work is heating, so air conditioning is the bigger bill. Months averaging under 55°: December and January.
Degree days add up how far each day’s average falls below (heating) or rises above (cooling) 65° over a year. NOAA normals at Youngtown, AZ.
Living with Surprise’s climate
What the numbers mean for a garden, a free afternoon and a bad-weather day.
331 frost-free days in zone 9b. The last frost comes by Jan 20 in half of years, so many gardeners wait a week or two past that to set out tomatoes. The first fall frost comes by Dec 15.
Months with highs of 62–84° and lows of 40° or more: January, February, March, April, November and December. 70 miles of trails are waiting.
Parks & trails →Of the yearly building losses FEMA expects in Surprise from natural hazards, river flooding is the largest share (49%); heat waves, cold waves, winter storms and ice storms together are 47%. Normals are averages; the hazards page covers the extremes.
Natural hazards →Surprise and its neighbors
Buckeye the hottest July afternoons (106°, 1° warmer). Differences under a degree are within what the 5 km grid can tell apart. Tap a town to see its climate.
Climates most like Surprise’s, farther away
TownRatings’ own comparison of NOAA 1991–2020 normals, not a NOAA product: places of 5,000+ at least 150 miles away, one per state, closest on January low, July high, precipitation and snow.
| Town | Jan. low | July high | Precip. | Snow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surprise, AZ | 41° | 105° | 8" | 0.0" |
| Boulder City, NV | 41° | 106° | 4" | 0.0" |
| Garnet, CA | 43° | 105° | 5" | 0.0" |
| St. George, UT | 33° | 103° | 8" | 1.2" |
| Laredo, TX | 45° | 99° | 20" | 0.1" |
Temperatures and rain come from NOAA’s 5 km grid, so each town gets its own value. Snow and frost-free days come from the nearest weather station, so neighbors often share them.
Warmer than it used to be
The last 30 years in Surprise averaged 2.2° warmer than the 1900s. The biggest change is in March (+3.0°).
A bigger shift than in 95% of U.S. towns.
Change by month
The two periods overlap (1991–2000 is in both), which makes the gap a little smaller than it would be between separate periods. In a city of 175,000 people, part of the change is the city itself: pavement and buildings hold heat (the urban heat island).
How Surprise compares
Against 12,954 U.S. towns of 2,500 or more (one per 5 km climate cell), with Surprise’s place among Arizona’s.
Surprise weather by month
Highs, lows and precipitation from NOAA’s grid at Surprise’s center; snow, wet days and snow on the ground from Youngtown, AZ. 1991–2020 normals.
| Month | High | Low | Rain + melt | Snow | Wet days | Snow on ground | 30-yr range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 67° | 41° | 1.0" | 0.0" | 4 | 0 | 51° – 59° |
| February | 70° | 44° | 1.0" | 0.0" | 4 | 0 | 50° – 62° |
| March | 76° | 48° | 1.1" | 0.0" | 4 | 0 | 55° – 69° |
| April | 84° | 54° | 0.2" | 0.0" | 2 | 0 | 63° – 73° |
| May | 93° | 62° | 0.1" | 0.0" | 1 | 0 | 72° – 83° |
| June | 103° | 71° | 0.0" | 0.0" | 0 | 0 | 81° – 91° |
| July | 105° | 79° | 0.8" | 0.0" | 3 | 0 | 88° – 95° |
| August | 104° | 78° | 1.0" | 0.0" | 4 | 0 | 88° – 95° |
| September | 98° | 72° | 0.8" | 0.0" | 2 | 0 | 81° – 87° |
| October | 87° | 59° | 0.4" | 0.0" | 2 | 0 | 69° – 78° |
| November | 75° | 47° | 0.6" | 0.0" | 2 | 0 | 53° – 68° |
| December | 65° | 40° | 1.0" | 0.0" | 4 | 0 | 50° – 57° |
| Year | 85° | 58° | 8.0" | 0.0" | 31 | 0 |
How much a month can swing
A normal is an average. November swings the most: from 1991 to 2020 its average ranged from 53° to 68°. September is the most reliable, staying within 6°.
Where Surprise’s numbers come from
Normals are 30-year averages, not a forecast. How TownRatings reads climate data →
- Temperatures and precipitation: NOAA’s gridded 1991–2020 normals for the 5 km cell at Surprise’s center.
- Snow: Youngtown, AZ.
- Frost, freezing nights, 90° and 100° days, heating and cooling: Youngtown, AZ, 10 miles from the city’s center point, 250 ft lower; the nearest station that passes our checks for distance, height and agreement with the grid.
- Growing zone: USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map, 2023. USDA Agricultural Research Service and PRISM Group, Oregon State University, prism.oregonstate.edu/phzm, accessed 8 Oct 2026.
- Then and now: NOAA’s gridded normals for 1901–2000 at the same cell.
- Storms and extremes: FEMA National Risk Index (expected annual losses to buildings).
Common questions about Surprise’s climate
What is the weather like in Surprise?
A typical July afternoon reaches 105°, a January night drops to 41°, and snow is almost unheard of. Milder January nights than 90% of U.S. towns; hotter July afternoons than all but 67 U.S. towns.
How cold does it get in Surprise in winter?
December nights average 40°. About 4 nights a year reach 32° or below. In the coldest December of the last 30 years the month averaged 50°.
How much snow does Surprise get?
About 0.0 inches in a normal winter at Youngtown, AZ, so most winters see none.
How hot does it get in Surprise?
July, with a typical high of 105° and a low of 79°. About 175 days a year reach 90° and 115 reach 100° (Youngtown, AZ).
When is the first and last frost in Surprise?
In half of years the last spring frost (32°) comes by January 20 and the first fall frost by December 15, about 331 frost-free days, at Youngtown, AZ.
What growing zone is Surprise in?
Zone 9b on the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map: the coldest night of a typical winter reaches about 28°.
What is the best time of year to visit Surprise?
By one simple rule (highs of 62–84° and lows of 40° or more), January, February, March, April, November and December. The rule is ours, not NOAA’s; the month table has the numbers to judge by.
Is Surprise getting warmer?
Yes: 1991–2020 averaged 2.2° warmer than 1901–2000 on NOAA’s grid. A bigger shift than 95% of U.S. towns.
Neighbors talk weather
Gardens, snow, and the best days of the year in Surprise.
Source: NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991–2020 and 1901–2000; USDA/PRISM 2023 hardiness zones; FEMA National Risk Index. Today’s forecast: National Weather Service.