On FEMA’s figures, Picture Rocks faces more hazard damage per building than 95% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Picture Rocks gets a D− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 95% of U.S. towns, #127 of 140 in Arizona. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (90%). FEMA’s files show no paid flood insurance claims here.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Picture Rocks faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Wildfire
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Picture Rocks’ grade
River and rain flooding is 90% of the building damage FEMA expects in Picture Rocks, and Picture Rocks’ rate of river and rain flooding damage is in the top 2% of U.S. census tracts. Wildfire adds 9%, at a rate in the top 3% of U.S. census tracts.
D− #127 of 140 in Arizona; higher expected damage per building than 95% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Picture Rocks’ residents live in 4 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical Arizona town has higher expected damage than 78% of U.S. towns; within the state, Picture Rocks has more expected damage per building than 91% of Arizona towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $6.1M a year in losses across Picture Rocks: $4.5M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Picture Rocks flood? No paid flood claims on record
FEMA’s records show no paid flood insurance claims in Picture Rocks. That’s not a promise: most homes don’t carry flood insurance, so small floods go unrecorded.
Picture Rocks isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Pima County.The storms Picture Rocks remembers
None of the 10 disasters declared for Pima County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Picture Rocks itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.
Pima County has had 10 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often floods, then severe storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Also 2 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Pima County, 2003–2020.
Picture Rocks and its neighbors
Picture Rocks is 2nd of the 3 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marana | Dmore damage than 90% | river and rain flooding | 4 |
| Picture Rocks | D−more damage than 95% | river and rain flooding | 0 |
| Avra Valley | D−among the highest damage | river and rain flooding | 4 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Picture Rocks faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Clear dead leaves and brush within 5 feet of the house.
- Sign up for local alerts and know two ways out.
- Keep N95 masks for smoky days.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Picture Rocks
Is Picture Rocks at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Picture Rocks has higher expected damage per building than 95% of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk, #127 of 140 in Arizona. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (90%) and wildfire (9%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Is Picture Rocks in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Pima County, 21% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.7% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Picture Rocks?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Picture Rocks’ flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
Is Picture Rocks at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (90%), and Picture Rocks’ rate for it is in the top 2% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Picture Rocks.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Picture Rocks’ residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.