On FEMA’s figures, few U.S. towns expect more hazard damage per building than Avra Valley, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Avra Valley gets a D− for hazard risk: among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (94%). Flood insurance has paid 4 claims here since 1983.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Avra Valley faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Wildfire
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Avra Valley’s grade
River and rain flooding is 94% of the building damage FEMA expects in Avra Valley, and Avra Valley’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts. Wildfire adds 5%, at a rate in the top 3% of U.S. census tracts.
D− #139 of 140 in Arizona; among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns (21,298).
All of Avra Valley’s residents live in one census tract; the figures are that tract’s.
The typical Arizona town has higher expected damage than 78% of U.S. towns; within the state, Avra Valley has more expected damage per building than 99% of Arizona towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $4.8M a year in losses across Avra Valley: $3.8M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Avra Valley flood? Rarely: 4 flood claims since 1983
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Avra Valley, from FEMA’s records: 1.6 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 67% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Avra Valley isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Pima County.The storms Avra Valley remembers
None of the 10 disasters declared for Pima County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Avra Valley itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.
- 19832 flood claims paidThe year of Severe Storms and Flooding, declared for Pima County
- 20061 flood claims paidThe year of Severe Storms and Flooding, declared for Pima County
- 20221 flood claims paidNo declaration for the county that year
Pima County has had 10 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often floods, then severe storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Also 2 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Pima County, 2003–2020.
Old photos of Avra Valley after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Avra Valley archive →Avra Valley and its neighbors
Avra Valley is 2nd of the 2 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Picture Rocks | D−more damage than 95% | river and rain flooding | — |
| Avra Valley | D−among the highest damage | river and rain flooding | 4 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Avra Valley faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Clear dead leaves and brush within 5 feet of the house.
- Sign up for local alerts and know two ways out.
- Keep N95 masks for smoky days.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Avra Valley
Is Avra Valley at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Avra Valley has among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (94%) and wildfire (5%). The figures are for the one census tract the town shares with its neighbors. This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Avra Valley flood?
Flood insurance has paid 4 claims in Avra Valley since 1983, $88K in all, or 1.6 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 67% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Is Avra Valley in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Pima County, 21% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.7% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Avra Valley?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Avra Valley’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
Is Avra Valley at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (94%), and Avra Valley’s rate for it is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Avra Valley.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Avra Valley’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.