Photo: Ser_Amantio_di_Nicolao · CC BY-SA 3.0FEMA expects about as much hazard damage per building in Lake Caroline as in the typical U.S. town, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Lake Caroline gets a B for hazard risk: lower expected damage per building than 59% of U.S. towns, #198 of 253 in Virginia. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (58%), then hurricanes (27%). FEMA’s files show no paid flood insurance claims here.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Lake Caroline faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Hurricanes
Earthquakes
Tornadoes
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Lake Caroline’s grade
River and rain flooding is 58% of the building damage FEMA expects in Lake Caroline, and Lake Caroline’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is lower than 64% of U.S. census tracts. Next is hurricanes at 27% (higher than 86% of U.S. census tracts).
B #198 of 253 in Virginia; lower expected damage per building than 59% of U.S. towns (21,298).
All of Lake Caroline’s residents live in one census tract; the figures are that tract’s.
The typical Virginia town has lower expected damage than 81% of U.S. towns; within the state, Lake Caroline has more expected damage per building than 78% of Virginia towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $482K a year in losses across Lake Caroline: $376K to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Lake Caroline flood? No paid flood claims on record
FEMA’s records show no paid flood insurance claims in Lake Caroline. That’s not a promise: most homes don’t carry flood insurance, so small floods go unrecorded.
Lake Caroline isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Caroline County.The storms Lake Caroline remembers
None of the 21 disasters declared for Caroline County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Lake Caroline itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.
Caroline County has had 21 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often winter storms, then severe storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Get ready for what Lake Caroline faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- The season runs June through November and peaks from mid-August to mid-October.
- Bring in porch furniture and anything the wind can throw.
- Fill the gas tank and charge phones before the storm arrives.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Pick your spot now: the lowest floor, an inside room, no windows.
- A watch means be ready; a warning means take cover now.
- Keep shoes and a flashlight by the bed.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Lake Caroline
Is Lake Caroline at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Lake Caroline has lower expected damage per building than 59% of U.S. towns: B for hazard risk, #198 of 253 in Virginia. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (58%) and hurricanes (27%). The figures are for the one census tract the town shares with its neighbors. This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Is Lake Caroline in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Caroline County, 7% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.4% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Lake Caroline?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Lake Caroline’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
Is Lake Caroline at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (58%), and Lake Caroline’s rate for it is lower than 64% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Lake Caroline.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Lake Caroline’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.