Photo: Dion Hinchcliffe · CC BY-SA 2.0FEMA puts Herndon’s expected hazard damage per building below that of 95% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Herndon gets an A+ for hazard risk: lower expected damage per building than 95% of U.S. towns, #35 of 253 in Virginia. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (77%), then hurricanes (13%). Flood insurance has paid 8 claims here since 2000.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Herndon faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Hurricanes
Earthquakes
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Herndon’s grade
River and rain flooding is 77% of the building damage FEMA expects in Herndon, and Herndon’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is lower than 81% of U.S. census tracts. Next is hurricanes at 13% (higher than 74% of U.S. census tracts).
A+ #35 of 253 in Virginia; lower expected damage per building than 95% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Herndon’s residents live in 5 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical Virginia town has lower expected damage than 81% of U.S. towns; within the state, Herndon has less expected damage per building than 87% of Virginia towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $3.5M a year in losses across Herndon: $2.9M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Herndon flood? Rarely: 8 flood claims since 2000
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Herndon, from FEMA’s records: 1.0 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 78% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- Hurricane Sandy1 claim · $3K
- The Mid-spring storms1 claim · $2K
Herndon isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Fairfax County.7 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Herndon
Disasters that paid out in Herndon itself (aid to households or repair grants to the Town of Herndon), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2016Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm$99K to the Town of Herndon for repairs
- 2010Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms$202K to the Town of Herndon for repairs
- 2009Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm$77K to the Town of Herndon for repairs1 flood claim paid that year
- 2006Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding$5K to the Town of Herndon for repairs
- 2003Hurricane Isabel16 households applied for aid$5K aid approved$60K to the Town of Herndon for repairs
- 2003Severe Winter Storm, Record/near Record Snowfall, Heavy Rain,floodind, and Mudslide$37K to the Town of Herndon for repairs
Show all 7
- 2000Severe Winter Storms$22K to the Town of Herndon for repairs1 flood claim paid that year
Fairfax County has had 16 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often winter storms, then hurricanes and tropical storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Old photos of Herndon after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Herndon archive →Herndon and its neighbors
Herndon is 4th of the 6 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Grove | A+among the lowest damage | river and rain flooding | — |
| Hutchison | A+less damage than 97% | river and rain flooding | 1 |
| McNair | A+less damage than 96% | river and rain flooding | — |
| Herndon | A+less damage than 95% | river and rain flooding | 8 |
| Reston | Aless damage than 93% | river and rain flooding | 14 |
| Dranesville | B+less damage than 73% | river and rain flooding | 2 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Herndon faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- The season runs June through November and peaks from mid-August to mid-October.
- Bring in porch furniture and anything the wind can throw.
- Fill the gas tank and charge phones before the storm arrives.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Herndon
Is Herndon at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Herndon has lower expected damage per building than 95% of U.S. towns: A+ for hazard risk, #35 of 253 in Virginia. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (77%) and hurricanes (13%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Herndon flood?
Flood insurance has paid 8 claims in Herndon since 2000, $19K in all, or 1.0 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 78% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. 1 properties have flooded more than once. The most claims came from Hurricane Sandy (1).
Is Herndon in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Fairfax County, 22% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 1.1% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Herndon?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Herndon’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Herndon?
By FEMA money that reached Herndon, Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms (2010): $202K to the Town of Herndon for repairs. By flood claims, Hurricane Sandy: 1 paid, $3K.
Is Herndon at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (77%), and Herndon’s rate for it is lower than 81% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Herndon.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Herndon’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.