Photo: Ser Amantio di Nicolao · CC BY-SA 4.0Less hazard damage per building is expected in Fair Lakes than in 72% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Fair Lakes gets a B+ for hazard risk: lower expected damage per building than 72% of U.S. towns, #168 of 253 in Virginia. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (86%). FEMA’s files show no paid flood insurance claims here.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Fair Lakes faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Hurricanes
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Fair Lakes’ grade
River and rain flooding is 86% of the building damage FEMA expects in Fair Lakes, and Fair Lakes’ rate of river and rain flooding damage is higher than 52% of U.S. census tracts. Next is hurricanes at 8% (higher than 74% of U.S. census tracts).
B+ #168 of 253 in Virginia; lower expected damage per building than 72% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Fair Lakes’ residents live in 4 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical Virginia town has lower expected damage than 81% of U.S. towns; within the state, Fair Lakes has more expected damage per building than 66% of Virginia towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $2.0M a year in losses across Fair Lakes: $1.8M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Fair Lakes flood? No paid flood claims on record
FEMA’s records show no paid flood insurance claims in Fair Lakes. That’s not a promise: most homes don’t carry flood insurance, so small floods go unrecorded.
Fair Lakes isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Fairfax County.The storms Fair Lakes remembers
None of the 16 disasters declared for Fairfax County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Fair Lakes itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.
Fairfax County has had 16 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often winter storms, then hurricanes and tropical storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Fair Lakes and its neighbors
Fair Lakes is 2nd of the 5 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair Oaks | Aless damage than 92% | river and rain flooding | 2 |
| Fair Lakes | B+less damage than 72% | river and rain flooding | 0 |
| Greenbriar | B+less damage than 71% | river and rain flooding | — |
| Union Mill | Bless damage than 62% | river and rain flooding | — |
| Centreville | B−less damage than 54% | river and rain flooding | 12 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Fair Lakes faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- The season runs June through November and peaks from mid-August to mid-October.
- Bring in porch furniture and anything the wind can throw.
- Fill the gas tank and charge phones before the storm arrives.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Fair Lakes
Is Fair Lakes at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Fair Lakes has lower expected damage per building than 72% of U.S. towns: B+ for hazard risk, #168 of 253 in Virginia. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (86%) and hurricanes (8%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Is Fair Lakes in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Fairfax County, 22% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 1.1% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Fair Lakes?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Fair Lakes’ flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
Is Fair Lakes at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (86%), and Fair Lakes’ rate for it is higher than 52% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Fair Lakes.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Fair Lakes’ residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.