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EvergreenEvergreen · Public domain
A−Hazard risk
Natural hazards in Bull Run Mountain Estates · FEMA

FEMA expects less hazard damage per building in Bull Run Mountain Estates than in 78% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding

On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Bull Run Mountain Estates gets an A− for hazard risk: lower expected damage per building than 78% of U.S. towns. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (82%). FEMA’s files show no paid flood insurance claims here.

River and rain flooding 82%Hurricanes 8%Tornadoes 3%

Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded

less than 78%of U.S. townsLess damageMoreExpected yearly damage per dollar of building, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade
Hazard risk
A−
in Virginia · lower than 78% of U.S. towns
Main hazard
River and rain flooding
82% of expected building damage
Flood claims
0
paid since 1978 · $0
Disasters paid out here
0
of 16 declared for Prince William County
By hazard

What Bull Run Mountain Estates faces

Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.

River and rain flooding

82%of expected building damage
About average · lower than 56% of U.S. census tracts
Recorded about 3 times a year in the area

Hurricanes

8%of expected building damage
Above average · higher than 73% of U.S. census tracts
Recorded about once every 11 years in the area
Smaller shares here
 Tornadoes Earthquakes Hail Strong wind Ice storms Winter storms Cold waves Landslides Lightning Wildfire Heat waves
FEMA models no building damage here
Coastal floodingAvalanchesTsunamisVolcanic activity
People, not buildings.Counting harm to people as well as buildings, FEMA’s model puts heat waves at 8% of Bull Run Mountain Estates’ expected losses. Heat waves do little damage to buildings (0.0%), so they aren’t part of the grade.

Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.

Flood risk changes street by street. Check a specific address on FEMA’s flood map, and ask about flood insurance before you buy.
Hazard risk grade

What’s behind Bull Run Mountain Estates’ grade

River and rain flooding is 82% of the building damage FEMA expects in Bull Run Mountain Estates, and Bull Run Mountain Estates’ rate of river and rain flooding damage is lower than 56% of U.S. census tracts. Next is hurricanes at 8% (higher than 73% of U.S. census tracts).

Where Bull Run Mountain Estates sits
Bull Run Mountain Estates
Least damageMiddleMost damage

A− lower expected damage per building than 78% of U.S. towns (21,298).

All of Bull Run Mountain Estates’ residents live in one census tract; the figures are that tract’s.

What drives the damage to buildings
River and rain flooding82%Hurricanes8%Tornadoes3%Everything else7%

In dollars, FEMA expects about $185K a year in losses across Bull Run Mountain Estates: $141K to buildings, the rest to people and crops.

Shared tract.All of Bull Run Mountain Estates’ 1,220 residents (2020 census) live in one census tract. FEMA publishes its model by tract, so the rate and the hazard mix are the tract’s. The flood claims below are the town’s own.
A shared figure. The grade describes the whole tract, not each street in it, and FEMA’s model is an average year for today’s buildings, not a record: the claims below are the record.

How TownRatings grades hazard risk →

Flood insurance claims

Does Bull Run Mountain Estates flood? No paid flood claims on record

FEMA’s records show no paid flood insurance claims in Bull Run Mountain Estates. That’s not a promise: most homes don’t carry flood insurance, so small floods go unrecorded.

of homes in flood zones are insured
of all homes are insured
No community discount

Bull Run Mountain Estates isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.

Insurance rates: Prince William County.
Disasters

The storms Bull Run Mountain Estates remembers

None of the 16 disasters declared for Prince William County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Bull Run Mountain Estates itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.

Disasters declared, by decade
Paid out in Bull Run Mountain EstatesPrince William County only

Prince William County has had 16 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often winter storms, then hurricanes and tropical storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.

Be ready

Get ready for what Bull Run Mountain Estates faces

A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.

When the river rises
  • Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
  • Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
  • Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Hurricane season
  • The season runs June through November and peaks from mid-August to mid-October.
  • Bring in porch furniture and anything the wind can throw.
  • Fill the gas tank and charge phones before the storm arrives.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Before you buy or rent
  • Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
  • Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
  • Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
When a storm is coming
Forecast and alertsWeather →911, the nearest ERSafety →

Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.

Questions about natural hazards in Bull Run Mountain Estates

Is Bull Run Mountain Estates at risk for natural disasters?

On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Bull Run Mountain Estates has lower expected damage per building than 78% of U.S. towns: A− for hazard risk. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (82%) and hurricanes (8%). The figures are for the one census tract the town shares with its neighbors. This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.

Is Bull Run Mountain Estates in a flood zone?

Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Prince William County, 46% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 1.3% of all homes do.

How much is flood insurance in Bull Run Mountain Estates?

FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Bull Run Mountain Estates’ flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.

Is Bull Run Mountain Estates at risk from river and rain flooding?

It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (82%), and Bull Run Mountain Estates’ rate for it is lower than 56% of U.S. census tracts.

Storm stories

Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Bull Run Mountain Estates.

Town Square →
Start the conversation

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Bull Run Mountain Estates’ residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.