FEMA expects less hazard damage per building in Bailey's Crossroads than in 96% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Bailey's Crossroads gets an A+ for hazard risk: lower expected damage per building than 96% of U.S. towns, #28 of 253 in Virginia. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (72%), then hurricanes (13%). Flood insurance has paid 5 claims here since 1978.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Bailey's Crossroads faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Hurricanes
Earthquakes
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Bailey's Crossroads’ grade
River and rain flooding is 72% of the building damage FEMA expects in Bailey's Crossroads, and Bailey's Crossroads’ rate of river and rain flooding damage is lower than 85% of U.S. census tracts. Next is hurricanes at 13% (higher than 74% of U.S. census tracts).
A+ #28 of 253 in Virginia; lower expected damage per building than 96% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Bailey's Crossroads’ residents live in 6 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical Virginia town has lower expected damage than 81% of U.S. towns; within the state, Bailey's Crossroads has less expected damage per building than 89% of Virginia towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $2.4M a year in losses across Bailey's Crossroads: $1.7M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Bailey's Crossroads flood? Rarely: 5 flood claims since 1978
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Bailey's Crossroads, from FEMA’s records: 0.5 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 89% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Bailey's Crossroads isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Fairfax County.The storms Bailey's Crossroads remembers
None of the 16 disasters declared for Fairfax County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Bailey's Crossroads itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.
- 19781 flood claims paidNo declaration for the county that year
- 19851 flood claims paidNo declaration for the county that year
- 20021 flood claims paidNo declaration for the county that year
Fairfax County has had 16 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often winter storms, then hurricanes and tropical storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Old photos of Bailey's Crossroads after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Bailey's Crossroads archive →Bailey's Crossroads and its neighbors
Bailey's Crossroads is 2nd of the 6 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seven Corners | A+less damage than 98% | river and rain flooding | 3 |
| Bailey's Crossroads | A+less damage than 96% | river and rain flooding | 5 |
| Lincolnia | Aless damage than 94% | river and rain flooding | 17 |
| Arlington | Aless damage than 88% | river and rain flooding | 123 |
| Lake Barcroft | B+less damage than 75% | river and rain flooding | 14 |
| Alexandria | Bless damage than 55% | river and rain flooding | 298 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Bailey's Crossroads faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- The season runs June through November and peaks from mid-August to mid-October.
- Bring in porch furniture and anything the wind can throw.
- Fill the gas tank and charge phones before the storm arrives.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Bailey's Crossroads
Is Bailey's Crossroads at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Bailey's Crossroads has lower expected damage per building than 96% of U.S. towns: A+ for hazard risk, #28 of 253 in Virginia. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (72%) and hurricanes (13%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Bailey's Crossroads flood?
Flood insurance has paid 5 claims in Bailey's Crossroads since 1978, $53K in all, or 0.5 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 89% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Is Bailey's Crossroads in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Fairfax County, 22% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 1.1% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Bailey's Crossroads?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Bailey's Crossroads’ flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
Is Bailey's Crossroads at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (72%), and Bailey's Crossroads’ rate for it is lower than 85% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Bailey's Crossroads.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Bailey's Crossroads’ residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.