Photo: Larry D. Moore · CC BY 4.0FEMA expects more hazard damage per building in Horseshoe Bay than in 75% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Horseshoe Bay gets a C for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 75% of U.S. towns, #506 of 642 in Texas. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (84%). Flood insurance has paid 72 claims here since 2015.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Horseshoe Bay faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Tornadoes
Hail
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Horseshoe Bay’s grade
River and rain flooding is 84% of the building damage FEMA expects in Horseshoe Bay, and Horseshoe Bay’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is higher than 83% of U.S. census tracts. Next is tornadoes at 6% (higher than 73% of U.S. census tracts).
C #506 of 642 in Texas; higher expected damage per building than 75% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Horseshoe Bay’s residents live in 3 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical Texas town has higher expected damage than 50% of U.S. towns; within the state, Horseshoe Bay has more expected damage per building than 79% of Texas towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $3.7M a year in losses across Horseshoe Bay: $2.6M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Horseshoe Bay flood? Sometimes: 72 flood claims since 2015
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Horseshoe Bay, from FEMA’s records: 18.7 per 1,000 homes, more than 83% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- The Fall 2018 Texas Flooding62 claims · $2.5M
- The Early summer storms1 claim · $15K
Horseshoe Bay isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Llano County.4 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Horseshoe Bay
Disasters that paid out in Horseshoe Bay itself (aid to households or repair grants to the City of Horseshoe Bay), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2025Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, and Flooding7 households applied for aid$26K aid approved
- 2021Severe Winter Storms29 households applied for aid$11K aid approved$101K to the City of Horseshoe Bay for repairs1 flood claim paid that year
- 2018Severe Storms and Flooding$16K to the City of Horseshoe Bay for repairs69 flood claims paid that year
- 2007Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding12 households applied for aid$4K aid approved$7K to the City of Horseshoe Bay for repairs
Llano County has had 12 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Old photos of Horseshoe Bay after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Horseshoe Bay archive →Horseshoe Bay and its neighbors
Horseshoe Bay is 2nd of the 3 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Granite Shoals | C+more damage than 64% | river and rain flooding | 69 |
| Horseshoe Bay | Cmore damage than 75% | river and rain flooding | 72 |
| Cottonwood Shores | C−more damage than 77% | river and rain flooding | 9 |
| Sunrise Beach Village | — | 936 residents; we grade 1,000+ | |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Horseshoe Bay faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Pick your spot now: the lowest floor, an inside room, no windows.
- A watch means be ready; a warning means take cover now.
- Keep shoes and a flashlight by the bed.
- Park in a garage or under cover when storms are forecast.
- Stay away from windows while it falls.
- Photograph roof and car damage for your insurer.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Horseshoe Bay
Is Horseshoe Bay at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Horseshoe Bay has higher expected damage per building than 75% of U.S. towns: C for hazard risk, #506 of 642 in Texas. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (84%) and tornadoes (6%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Horseshoe Bay flood?
Flood insurance has paid 72 claims in Horseshoe Bay since 2015, $2.7M in all, or 18.7 per 1,000 homes, more than 83% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. The most claims came from Fall 2018 Texas Flooding (62).
Is Horseshoe Bay in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Llano County, 56% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 7.1% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Horseshoe Bay?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Horseshoe Bay’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Horseshoe Bay?
By FEMA money that reached Horseshoe Bay, Severe Winter Storms (2021): 29 households applied for aid, $11K approved, and $101K to the City of Horseshoe Bay for repairs. By flood claims, Fall 2018 Texas Flooding: 62 paid, $2.5M.
Is Horseshoe Bay at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (84%), and Horseshoe Bay’s rate for it is higher than 83% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Horseshoe Bay.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Horseshoe Bay’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.