Photo: Brian Stansberry · CC BY 4.0McMinnville’s building-damage rate from tornadoes is in the top 4% of U.S. census tracts
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, McMinnville gets a C+ for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 61% of U.S. towns, #111 of 177 in Tennessee. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (62%), then tornadoes (16%). Flood insurance has paid 13 claims here since 1980.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What McMinnville faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Tornadoes
Earthquakes
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind McMinnville’s grade
River and rain flooding is 62% of the building damage FEMA expects in McMinnville, and McMinnville’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is higher than 59% of U.S. census tracts. Tornadoes add 16%, at a rate in the top 4% of U.S. census tracts.
C+ #111 of 177 in Tennessee; higher expected damage per building than 61% of U.S. towns (21,298).
McMinnville’s residents live in 5 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical Tennessee town has higher expected damage than 53% of U.S. towns; within the state, McMinnville has more expected damage per building than 62% of Tennessee towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $6.3M a year in losses across McMinnville: $3.7M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does McMinnville flood? Sometimes: 13 flood claims since 1980
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in McMinnville, from FEMA’s records: 2.1 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 61% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- The Heavy rains1 claim · $6K
McMinnville isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Warren County.4 federal disasters brought FEMA money to McMinnville
Disasters that paid out in McMinnville itself (aid to households or repair grants to the City of McMinnville), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2019Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides$235K to the City of McMinnville for repairs
- 2003Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding$2K to the City of McMinnville for repairs1 flood claim paid that year
- 1999Severe Storms, Tornadoes and High Winds$64K to the City of McMinnville for repairs
- 1998Severe Winter Storm$58K to the City of McMinnville for repairs
Warren County has had 18 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Old photos of McMinnville after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the McMinnville archive →Get ready for what McMinnville faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Pick your spot now: the lowest floor, an inside room, no windows.
- A watch means be ready; a warning means take cover now.
- Keep shoes and a flashlight by the bed.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in McMinnville
Is McMinnville at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, McMinnville has higher expected damage per building than 61% of U.S. towns: C+ for hazard risk, #111 of 177 in Tennessee. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (62%) and tornadoes (16%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does McMinnville flood?
Flood insurance has paid 13 claims in McMinnville since 1980, $192K in all, or 2.1 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 61% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. 1 properties have flooded more than once. The most claims came from Heavy rains (1).
Is McMinnville in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Warren County, 12% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.2% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in McMinnville?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for McMinnville’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in McMinnville?
By FEMA money that reached McMinnville, Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (2019): $235K to the City of McMinnville for repairs. By flood claims, Heavy rains: 1 paid, $6K.
Is McMinnville at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (62%), and McMinnville’s rate for it is higher than 59% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in McMinnville.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where McMinnville’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.