Photo: (User:Wgreaves) · CC BY 3.0FEMA puts Chapel Hill’s expected hazard damage per building above that of 62% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Chapel Hill gets a C+ for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 62% of U.S. towns, #189 of 290 in North Carolina. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (82%). Flood insurance has paid 384 claims here since 1978.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What stands out about Chapel Hill’s natural hazards
From FEMA’s model and FEMA’s records, below.
What Chapel Hill faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Hurricanes
Tornadoes
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Chapel Hill’s grade
River and rain flooding is 82% of the building damage FEMA expects in Chapel Hill, and Chapel Hill’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is higher than 76% of U.S. census tracts. Next is hurricanes at 8% (higher than 80% of U.S. census tracts).
C+ #189 of 290 in North Carolina; higher expected damage per building than 62% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Chapel Hill’s residents live in 23 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical North Carolina town has lower expected damage than 51% of U.S. towns; within the state, Chapel Hill has more expected damage per building than 65% of North Carolina towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $20.7M a year in losses across Chapel Hill: $16.7M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Chapel Hill flood? Yes: 384 flood claims since 1978
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Chapel Hill, from FEMA’s records: 16.3 per 1,000 homes, more than 81% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- The 2025 July TS Chantal115 claims · $16.2M
- Hurricane Florence64 claims · $5.3M
- Hurricane Fran28 claims · $422K
Chapel Hill isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Orange County.11 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Chapel Hill
Disasters that paid out in Chapel Hill itself (aid to households or repair grants to the Town of Chapel Hill), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2025Tropical Depression Chantal$893K to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs121 flood claims paid that year
- 2024Tropical Storm Helene4 households applied for aid$1K aid approved6 flood claims paid that year
- 2018Tropical Storm Michael$83K to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs
- 2018Hurricane Florence93 households applied for aid$250K aid approved$340K to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs64 flood claims paid for it, $5.3M
- 2016Hurricane Matthew14 households applied for aid$14K aid approved6 flood claims paid for it, $224K
- 2014Severe Winter Storm$85K to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs2 flood claims paid that year
Show all 11
- 2003Hurricane Isabel$231K to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs
- 2003Ice Storm$941 to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs
- 2002Severe Ice Storm$1.1M to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs2 flood claims paid that year
- 2000Severe Winter Storm$58K to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs41 flood claims paid that year
- 1999Hurricane Floyd Major Disaster Declarations$21K to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs2 flood claims paid for it, $11K
Orange County has had 22 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often hurricanes and tropical storms, then winter storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Old photos of Chapel Hill after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Chapel Hill archive →Chapel Hill and its neighbors
Chapel Hill is 2nd of the 3 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Chapel Hill faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- The season runs June through November and peaks from mid-August to mid-October.
- Bring in porch furniture and anything the wind can throw.
- Fill the gas tank and charge phones before the storm arrives.
- Pick your spot now: the lowest floor, an inside room, no windows.
- A watch means be ready; a warning means take cover now.
- Keep shoes and a flashlight by the bed.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Chapel Hill
Is Chapel Hill at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Chapel Hill has higher expected damage per building than 62% of U.S. towns: C+ for hazard risk, #189 of 290 in North Carolina. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (82%) and hurricanes (8%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Chapel Hill flood?
Flood insurance has paid 384 claims in Chapel Hill since 1978, $31.6M in all, or 16.3 per 1,000 homes, more than 81% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. 51 properties have flooded more than once. The most claims came from 2025 July TS Chantal (115).
Is Chapel Hill in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Orange County, 50% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 1.5% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Chapel Hill?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Chapel Hill’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Chapel Hill?
By FEMA money that reached Chapel Hill, Severe Ice Storm (2002): $1.1M to the Town of Chapel Hill for repairs. By flood claims, 2025 July TS Chantal: 115 paid, $16.2M.
Is Chapel Hill at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (82%), and Chapel Hill’s rate for it is higher than 76% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Chapel Hill.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Chapel Hill’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.