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C+Hazard risk
Natural hazards in Winchester · FEMA

More hazard damage per building is expected in Winchester than in 65% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding

On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Winchester gets a C+ for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 65% of U.S. towns. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (70%), then earthquakes (15%). Flood insurance has paid 3 claims here since 1995.

River and rain flooding 70%Earthquakes 15%Hail 10%

Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded

more than 65%of U.S. townsLess damageMoreExpected yearly damage per dollar of building, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade
Hazard risk
C+
in Missouri · higher than 65% of U.S. towns
Main hazard
River and rain flooding
70% of expected building damage
Flood claims
3
paid since 1995 · $113K
Flood claims per home
4 per 1,000
more than 56% of U.S. towns
By hazard

What Winchester faces

Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.

River and rain flooding

70%of expected building damage
Above average · higher than 68% of U.S. census tracts
Recorded about 3 times a year in the area

Earthquakes

15%of expected building damage
Well above average · higher than 81% of U.S. census tracts

Hail

10%of expected building damage
Well above average · in the top 6% of U.S. census tracts
Recorded about 5 times a year in the area
Smaller shares here
 Tornadoes Ice storms Winter storms Lightning Hurricanes Strong wind Wildfire Cold waves Heat waves Landslides
FEMA models no building damage here
Coastal floodingAvalanchesTsunamisVolcanic activity
People, not buildings.Counting harm to people as well as buildings, FEMA’s model puts heat waves at 43% of Winchester’s expected losses. Heat waves do little damage to buildings (0.0%), so they aren’t part of the grade.

Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.

Flood risk changes street by street. Check a specific address on FEMA’s flood map, and ask about flood insurance before you buy.
Hazard risk grade

What’s behind Winchester’s grade

River and rain flooding is 70% of the building damage FEMA expects in Winchester, and Winchester’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is higher than 68% of U.S. census tracts. Hail adds 10%, at a rate in the top 6% of U.S. census tracts.

Where Winchester sits
Winchester
Least damageMiddleMost damage

C+ higher expected damage per building than 65% of U.S. towns (21,298).

All of Winchester’s residents live in one census tract; the figures are that tract’s.

What drives the damage to buildings
River and rain flooding70%Earthquakes15%Hail10%Everything else5%

In dollars, FEMA expects about $850K a year in losses across Winchester: $351K to buildings, the rest to people and crops.

Shared tract.All of Winchester’s 1,447 residents (2020 census) live in one census tract. FEMA publishes its model by tract, so the rate and the hazard mix are the tract’s. The flood claims below are the town’s own.
A shared figure. The grade describes the whole tract, not each street in it, and FEMA’s model is an average year for today’s buildings, not a record: the claims below are the record.

How TownRatings grades hazard risk →

Flood insurance claims

Does Winchester flood? Rarely: 3 flood claims since 1995

Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Winchester, from FEMA’s records: 4.2 per 1,000 homes, more than 56% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.

Paid flood claims, by year
1995: 2 claims1996: 0 claims1997: 0 claims1998: 0 claims1999: 0 claims2000: 0 claims2001: 0 claims2002: 0 claims2003: 0 claims2004: 0 claims2005: 0 claims2006: 0 claims2007: 0 claims2008: 0 claims2009: 0 claims2010: 0 claims2011: 0 claims2012: 0 claims2013: 0 claims2014: 0 claims2015: 1 claim2016: 0 claims2017: 0 claims2018: 0 claims2019: 0 claims2020: 0 claims2021: 0 claims2022: 0 claims2023: 0 claims2024: 0 claims2025: 0 claims2026: 0 claims19952015
19952026
3
paid claims since 1995
$113K
paid to owners
0
homes flooded more than once
$38K
average claim
of homes in flood zones are insured
of all homes are insured
No community discount

Winchester isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.

Insurance rates: St. Louis County.
Disasters

The storms Winchester remembers

None of the 30 disasters declared for St. Louis County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Winchester itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.

  1. 19952 flood claims paidThe year of Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Hail, Flooding, declared for St. Louis County
  2. 20151 flood claims paidThe year of Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-line Winds, and Flooding, declared for St. Louis County
Disasters declared, by decade
Paid out in WinchesterSt. Louis County only

St. Louis County has had 30 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.

Were you here?

Old photos of Winchester after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.

Add to the Winchester archive →
Next door

Winchester and its neighbors

Winchester is 2nd of the 3 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.

Manchester: hazard risk CBallwin: hazard risk C+ManchesterBallwinWinchester
Lowest fifthSecondMiddleFourthHighest fifth
TownHazard riskMostly (buildings)Flood claims
BallwinC+more damage than 62%river and rain flooding38
WinchesterC+more damage than 65%river and rain flooding3
ManchesterCmore damage than 70%river and rain flooding60

Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.

Be ready

Get ready for what Winchester faces

A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.

When the river rises
  • Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
  • Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
  • Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Earthquakes
  • Drop, cover and hold on.
  • Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
  • Know how to shut off the gas.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Hail
  • Park in a garage or under cover when storms are forecast.
  • Stay away from windows while it falls.
  • Photograph roof and car damage for your insurer.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Before you buy or rent
  • Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
  • Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
  • Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
When a storm is coming
Forecast and alertsWeather →911, the nearest ERSafety →

Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.

Questions about natural hazards in Winchester

Is Winchester at risk for natural disasters?

On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Winchester has higher expected damage per building than 65% of U.S. towns: C+ for hazard risk. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (70%) and earthquakes (15%). The figures are for the one census tract the town shares with its neighbors. This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.

Does Winchester flood?

Flood insurance has paid 3 claims in Winchester since 1995, $113K in all, or 4.2 per 1,000 homes, more than 56% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.

Is Winchester in a flood zone?

Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In St. Louis County, 34% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.6% of all homes do.

How much is flood insurance in Winchester?

FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Winchester’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.

Is Winchester at risk from river and rain flooding?

It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (70%), and Winchester’s rate for it is higher than 68% of U.S. census tracts.

Storm stories

Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Winchester.

Town Square →
Start the conversation

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Winchester’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.