Photo: Gabriel Vanslette · CC BY 3.0FEMA puts Lake Elmo’s expected hazard damage per building below that of 73% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Lake Elmo gets a B+ for hazard risk: lower expected damage per building than 73% of U.S. towns, #79 of 274 in Minnesota. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (63%), then tornadoes (16%). Flood insurance has paid 22 claims here since 1979.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What stands out about Lake Elmo’s natural hazards
From FEMA’s model and FEMA’s records, below.
What Lake Elmo faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Tornadoes
Strong wind
Hail
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Lake Elmo’s grade
River and rain flooding is 63% of the building damage FEMA expects in Lake Elmo, and Lake Elmo’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is lower than 70% of U.S. census tracts. Strong wind adds 12%, at a rate in the top 3% of U.S. census tracts.
B+ #79 of 274 in Minnesota; lower expected damage per building than 73% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Lake Elmo’s residents live in 2 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical Minnesota town has lower expected damage than 57% of U.S. towns; within the state, Lake Elmo has less expected damage per building than 71% of Minnesota towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $4.2M a year in losses across Lake Elmo: $2.9M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Lake Elmo flood? Sometimes: 22 flood claims since 1979
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Lake Elmo, from FEMA’s records: 4.5 per 1,000 homes, more than 58% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Lake Elmo isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Washington County.The storms Lake Elmo remembers
None of the 13 disasters declared for Washington County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Lake Elmo itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.
- 198610 flood claims paidNo declaration for the county that year
- 19856 flood claims paidNo declaration for the county that year
- 19873 flood claims paidThe year of Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding, declared for Washington County
Washington County has had 13 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often floods, then severe storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Also 1 FEMA wildfire suppression grant (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Washington County, 2000–2000.
Old photos of Lake Elmo after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Lake Elmo archive →Lake Elmo and its neighbors
Lake Elmo is 3rd of the 8 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oakdale | A−less damage than 81% | river and rain flooding | 2 |
| Woodbury | B+less damage than 74% | river and rain flooding | 1 |
| Lake Elmo | B+less damage than 73% | river and rain flooding | 22 |
| Baytown Township | B+less damage than 72% | river and rain flooding | — |
| Grant | B+less damage than 71% | river and rain flooding | 2 |
| Oak Park Heights | B+less damage than 69% | river and rain flooding | — |
| Stillwater Township | Bless damage than 58% | river and rain flooding | 2 |
| West Lakeland Township | B−less damage than 54% | river and rain flooding | — |
| Pine Springs | — | 395 residents; we grade 1,000+ | |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Lake Elmo faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Pick your spot now: the lowest floor, an inside room, no windows.
- A watch means be ready; a warning means take cover now.
- Keep shoes and a flashlight by the bed.
- Trim dead limbs over the house and driveway.
- Tie down trash cans and outdoor furniture.
- Stay clear of downed lines and call the utility.
- Park in a garage or under cover when storms are forecast.
- Stay away from windows while it falls.
- Photograph roof and car damage for your insurer.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Lake Elmo
Is Lake Elmo at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Lake Elmo has lower expected damage per building than 73% of U.S. towns: B+ for hazard risk, #79 of 274 in Minnesota. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (63%) and tornadoes (16%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Lake Elmo flood?
Flood insurance has paid 22 claims in Lake Elmo since 1979, $276K in all, or 4.5 per 1,000 homes, more than 58% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. 1 properties have flooded more than once.
Is Lake Elmo in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Washington County, 22% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.3% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Lake Elmo?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Lake Elmo’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
Is Lake Elmo at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (63%), and Lake Elmo’s rate for it is lower than 70% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Lake Elmo.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Lake Elmo’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.