Photo: Connor J. Williams · CC BY 3.0FEMA expects more hazard damage per building in Lake Alfred than in 70% of U.S. towns, led by hurricanes
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Lake Alfred gets a C for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 70% of U.S. towns, #173 of 638 in Florida. Most of that expected damage is hurricanes (49%), then river and rain flooding (31%). Flood insurance has paid 1 claim here since 2023.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What stands out about Lake Alfred’s natural hazards
From FEMA’s model and FEMA’s records, below.
What Lake Alfred faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
Hurricanes
River and rain flooding
Strong wind
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Lake Alfred’s grade
Hurricanes are 49% of the building damage FEMA expects in Lake Alfred, and Lake Alfred’s rate of hurricanes damage is in the top 9% of U.S. census tracts. Strong wind adds 13%, at a rate in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts.
C #173 of 638 in Florida; higher expected damage per building than 70% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Lake Alfred’s residents live in 5 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical Florida town has higher expected damage than 79% of U.S. towns; within the state, Lake Alfred has less expected damage per building than 73% of Florida towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $1.7M a year in losses across Lake Alfred: $1.4M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Lake Alfred flood? Rarely: 1 flood claim since 2023
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Lake Alfred, from FEMA’s records: 0.4 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 93% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Lake Alfred is in FEMA’s Community Rating System (class 6) for its flood-proofing work.
Insurance rates: Polk County.8 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Lake Alfred
Disasters that paid out in Lake Alfred itself (aid to households or repair grants to the City of Lake Alfred), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2024Hurricane Milton1,099 households applied for aid$696K aid approved$81K to the City of Lake Alfred for repairs
- 2022Hurricane Ian877 households applied for aid$712K aid approved$111K to the City of Lake Alfred for repairs
- 2017Hurricane Irma1,347 households applied for aid$573K aid approved$63K to the City of Lake Alfred for repairs
- 2012Tropical Storm Debby4 households applied for aid$205 aid approved
- 2004Hurricane Jeanne441 households applied for aid$626K aid approved$71K to the City of Lake Alfred for repairs
- 2004Hurricane Ivan6 households applied for aid$318 aid approved
Show all 8
- 2004Hurricane Frances183 households applied for aid$188K aid approved$35K to the City of Lake Alfred for repairs
- 2004Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane Charley195 households applied for aid$141K aid approved$94K to the City of Lake Alfred for repairs
Polk County has had 27 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often hurricanes and tropical storms, then severe storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Also 5 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Polk County, 1999–2017.
Old photos of Lake Alfred after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Lake Alfred archive →Lake Alfred and its neighbors
Lake Alfred is 2nd of the 4 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Haven | Cmore damage than 69% | hurricanes | 29 |
| Lake Alfred | Cmore damage than 70% | hurricanes | 1 |
| Auburndale | Cmore damage than 72% | hurricanes | 8 |
| Haines City | C−more damage than 76% | hurricanes | 12 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Lake Alfred faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- The season runs June through November and peaks from mid-August to mid-October.
- Bring in porch furniture and anything the wind can throw.
- Fill the gas tank and charge phones before the storm arrives.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Trim dead limbs over the house and driveway.
- Tie down trash cans and outdoor furniture.
- Stay clear of downed lines and call the utility.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
- Lake Alfred residents get 20% off flood insurance.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Lake Alfred
Is Lake Alfred at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Lake Alfred has higher expected damage per building than 70% of U.S. towns: C for hazard risk, #173 of 638 in Florida. Most of the expected damage is hurricanes (49%) and river and rain flooding (31%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Lake Alfred flood?
Flood insurance has paid 1 claim in Lake Alfred since 2023, $14K in all, or 0.4 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 93% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Is Lake Alfred in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Polk County, 37% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 2.6% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Lake Alfred?
Lake Alfred is in FEMA’s Community Rating System (class 6), which takes 20% off federal flood insurance policies for its flood-proofing work. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Lake Alfred?
By FEMA money that reached Lake Alfred, Hurricane Ian (2022): 877 households applied for aid, $712K approved, and $111K to the City of Lake Alfred for repairs.
Is Lake Alfred at risk from hurricanes?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (49%), and Lake Alfred’s rate for it is in the top 9% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Lake Alfred.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Lake Alfred’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.