Photo: Masterhatch · CC BY-SA 4.0Hazards in Carlyle: wildfire low, radon over the guideline in 14% of tested homes
Wildfire isn’t Carlyle’s worry: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (0.000% a year). Earthquakes matter little: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.008 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. Carlyle grades B for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Carlyle’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Carlyle: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Carlyle faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Carlyle grades B for hazard risk
Earthquake risk and radon make Carlyle’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Carlyle: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Carlyle’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Low by Canadian standards: 0.000% of the land a year around Carlyle, 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
Forest makes up 0% of the land within 5 km of Carlyle and 0% within 25 km, little for a forest fire to run through.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Saskatchewan · highest of 105
La Loche has the highest burn rate in Saskatchewan, 1.94% a year; around Carlyle, as around 55 of the 105 towns, it rounds to zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Carlyle shares the low band with 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, its burn rate rounding to nothing; 7.5% burn faster.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Carlyle
Flood studies whose area touches Carlyle, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Nationally, Carlyle has no listed flood study; the municipality is the place to ask.
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are thinner in Saskatchewan, 55% of towns against 58% nationally, and Carlyle has none.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood is shown here, never graded: a study says where a map exists, not how many of Carlyle’s homes stand in a flood zone.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Low seismic risk in Carlyle: $0.008 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
At $0.008 per $1,000, Carlyle carries 0.3 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030): low.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Carlyle’s $0.008 tops the median in Saskatchewan, $0.006, though Weyburn reaches $0.033.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
87% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Carlyle.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Carlyle’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in Carlyle: 14% of area homes were over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Source area for radon tests: the Sun Country RHA
Carlyle’s survey area reads 14% over the guideline, well past the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
The median in Saskatchewan is 9.1% over 200 Bq/m³; the survey area around Carlyle has 14%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
One test in ten or more tops the guideline around Carlyle, as in 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 4.6% go higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A survey sample isn’t a map: any home in Carlyle can be high, and a three-month test is the only way to know.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Carlyle
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Carlyle; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Carlyle, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Carlyle faces
Practical steps for Carlyle’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Carlyle is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Carlyle.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Carlyle’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Carlyle’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Carlyle
How is Carlyle’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Carlyle’s Hazard risk grade is B, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
How big is the earthquake risk in Carlyle?
About $0.008 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Carlyle.
Is radon a problem in Carlyle?
14% of the 116 homes Health Canada tested around Carlyle topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Does Carlyle flood?
No study on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory covers Carlyle (0), which doesn’t mean it has never been mapped, so ask the municipality.
Is Carlyle at risk of wildfire?
Hardly at all on record: 0% of the land within 25 km of Carlyle since 1986, a low band, though small grass fires aren’t mapped.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).