Photo: Fralambert · CC BY-SA 4.0Flood mapping exists for Saint-Paul: 3 on record, latest by MRC Joliette
The national fire record shows next to nothing around Saint-Paul, 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986 (0.001% a year). Earthquakes add more: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.17 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. In Health Canada’s survey, just 3.9% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Saint-Paul grades C+ for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Saint-Paul’s hazards
For Saint-Paul, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Saint-Paul faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Saint-Paul: C+
Seismic risk and radon set Saint-Paul’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #100 of 507 in Quebec and #1,769 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The radon share rests on 77 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Few fires near Saint-Paul: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Saint-Paul’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
With 0.001% burned a year, Saint-Paul is among the many low-band places (the typical Canadian town 0.000%).
Nothing inside 5 km of Saint-Paul’s homes has burned since 1986, and the nearest scar is 5.2 km off.
Close to Saint-Paul there is little to burn (4.3% forest fuel within 5 km), but 7.6% of the land within 25 km is forest.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Quebec · highest of 513
At 0.001% a year, Saint-Paul ranks 136th of the 513 towns in Quebec; Mistissini leads at 0.31%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Saint-Paul is in the low band with 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns; 7.5% sit in moderate or higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Saint-Paul is on the flood map inventory: 3 studies, latest by MRC Joliette
Flood studies whose area touches Saint-Paul, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
3 studies on the inventory touch Saint-Paul, the newest MRC Joliette’s from 2016, and their areas can be large, so they say maps exist, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joliette-Notre-Dame-des-Prairies-Notre-Dame-de-Lourdes-St-Paul-St-Thomas-St-Charles-Borromée | MRC Joliette | 2016 | final |
| St-Paul | Gouvernement du Québec | 2006 | final |
| Crabtree | Gouvernement du Québec | 2004 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Mapping in Quebec reaches 45% of towns, Saint-Paul among them, below the 58% across Canada.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Mapping around Saint-Paul began in the 2000s; the 2000s saw the most work (2 of 3 studies), the latest in the 2010s.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching Saint-Paul.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Saint-Paul floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Shaking is Saint-Paul’s costliest hazard: $0.17 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Saint-Paul’s $0.17 is about 5.7 times the typical town’s $0.030: it sits in one of Canada’s more active seismic zones.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Shaking damage around Saint-Paul runs at $0.17 a year, near the $0.14 of the typical town in Quebec; La Pocatière has $0.48.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
14% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Saint-Paul, which places it in the upper third.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
What a quake does after the shaking, fire, landslides, tsunami, falls outside NRCan’s figure for Saint-Paul.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
3.9% of homes tested around Saint-Paul are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
At 3.9% over the guideline, the area around Saint-Paul is under the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%. Saint-Paul doesn’t get its own radon tests figures; the ones here come from the Lanaudiere health region.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Against the typical town in Quebec (8.2%), the area around Saint-Paul has fewer high tests: 3.9%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
63% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have a higher share of homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Saint-Paul’s band, which holds 37%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A low area share in Saint-Paul doesn’t clear a house, nor does a high one condemn it: test.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Saint-Paul
Alerts for Saint-Paul come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Evacuation orders for Saint-Paul come from the municipality or the province, while CWFIS maps fire danger every day.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Saint-Paul’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Paul | Low | $0.17 | 3.9% | Yes |
| Joliette 22,408 · 3.0 km | Low | $0.17 | 3.9% | Yes |
| Crabtree 4,237 · 4.0 km | Low | $0.16 | 3.9% | Yes |
| Saint-Charles-Borromée 16,904 · 6.5 km | Low | $0.16 | 3.9% | Yes |
| Notre-Dame-des-Prairies 9,622 · 6.8 km | Low | $0.16 | 3.9% | Yes |
| Saint-Thomas 3,477 · 7.3 km | Low | $0.15 | 3.9% | Yes |
| Sainte-Marie-Salomé 1,296 · 8.8 km | Low | $0.18 | 3.9% | None listed |
None of the places around has more fire nearby than Saint-Paul (low); Joliette comes closest (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Saint-Paul faces
Practical steps for Saint-Paul’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap the water heater down.
- Keep 72 hours of supplies.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
- Is earthquake cover included?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Saint-Paul without grading them.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Saint-Paul’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Saint-Paul until then.
- Wildfire counts one way. For Saint-Paul, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Saint-Paul
Is Saint-Paul at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: Saint-Paul’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2025), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Is radon a problem in Saint-Paul?
3.9% of the 77 homes Health Canada tested around Saint-Paul topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Does Saint-Paul flood?
A flood study covers Saint-Paul on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
How is Saint-Paul’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Saint-Paul C+, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
How big is the earthquake risk in Saint-Paul?
About $0.17 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Saint-Paul.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).