Photo: Boréal · CC BY-SA 3.0A flood study covers Val-Bélair: 3 on the national inventory, the newest from Ville de Québec
Fire has left almost no mark near Val-Bélair: 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986, 0.001% a year. Earthquakes add more: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.14 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. Radon is about average around Val-Bélair: 8.8% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Hazard risk gives Val-Bélair a grade of C−, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Val-Bélair’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Val-Bélair: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Val-Bélair faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Val-Bélair: C−
Seismic risk and radon set Val-Bélair’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #294 of 507 in Quebec and #2,256 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Val-Bélair: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Val-Bélair’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
A burn rate of 0.001% a year keeps Val-Bélair in the low band (the typical Canadian town: 0.000%).
No fire has burned within 5 km of Val-Bélair’s homes since 1986; the nearest burn is 12 km away.
Forest fuel is spread evenly around Val-Bélair: 24% within 5 km, 26% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Quebec · highest of 513
In the upper half in Quebec but far from Mistissini (0.31%): Val-Bélair ranks 136th of 513, at 0.001% a year.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns burn fast enough to rank moderate or above; Val-Bélair stays low, with 92%.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Val-Bélair is on the flood map inventory: 3 studies, latest by Ville de Québec
Flood studies whose area touches Val-Bélair, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Ville de Québec and others have studied flooding in areas that include Val-Bélair: 3 studies, the latest from 2015.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ville-de-Québec | Ville de Québec | 2015 | final |
| Shannon | Gouvernement du Québec | 1996 | final |
| CUQ | Gouvernement du Québec | 1991 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Its flood study sets Val-Bélair apart in Quebec, where 45% of towns have one (Canada: 58%).
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Studies touching Val-Bélair run from the 1990s to the 2010s, with the most in the 1990s: 2 of 3.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching Val-Bélair.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Val-Bélair’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Shaking is Val-Bélair’s costliest hazard: $0.14 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Val-Bélair’s $0.14 is about 4.6 times the typical town’s $0.030: it sits in one of Canada’s more active seismic zones.
Val-Bélair shares its earthquake risk numbers with the rest of the city of Québec.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Shaking damage around Val-Bélair runs at $0.14 a year, near the $0.14 of the typical town in Quebec; La Pocatière has $0.48.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Val-Bélair sits above most of Canada’s 2,611 towns on earthquake risk; 20% are higher.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Val-Bélair’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Some radon around Val-Bélair: 8.8% of area homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Area-wide: radon tests, counted over the Capitale-Nationale health region
Val-Bélair’s area sits close to the typical Canadian town: 8.8% over the guideline, against 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Ordinary for towns in Quebec at 8.8% over 200 Bq/m³ (8.2% is the median), the area around Val-Bélair had 2.5% over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Radon tops the guideline in a modest share of homes around Val-Bélair, a band holding 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 26% rank above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Val-Bélair can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Val-Bélair
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Val-Bélair; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Val-Bélair, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Val-Bélair
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Val-Bélair | Low | $0.14 | 8.8% | Yes |
| Loretteville 15,653 · 4.4 km | Low | $0.14 | 8.8% | Yes |
| Des Châtels 14,836 · 4.6 km | Low | $0.14 | 8.8% | Yes |
| Wendake 2,234 · 5.1 km | Low | $0.13 | 8.8% | Yes |
| Lac-Saint-Charles 9,985 · 6.6 km | Low | $0.14 | 8.8% | Yes |
| Saint-Émile 16,893 · 7.4 km | Low | $0.14 | 8.8% | Yes |
| L'Ancienne-Lorette 17,876 · 7.6 km | Low | $0.16 | 8.8% | Yes |
Val-Bélair’s low band tops its neighbours; Loretteville is next (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Val-Bélair faces
Practical steps for Val-Bélair’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap the water heater down.
- Keep 72 hours of supplies.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
- Is earthquake cover included?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Val-Bélair’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Val-Bélair’s.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Val-Bélair takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Val-Bélair.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Val-Bélair
Is radon a problem in Val-Bélair?
8.8% of the 160 homes Health Canada tested around Val-Bélair topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
How is Val-Bélair’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Val-Bélair grades C− for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
How big is the earthquake risk in Val-Bélair?
About $0.14 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Val-Bélair.
Does Val-Bélair flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Val-Bélair; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
Is Val-Bélair at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: Val-Bélair’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2020), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).