Photo: P199 · CC BY-SA 3.0Messines’ hazards at a glance: a low wildfire record and 13% of area homes over the radon guideline
Burn scars are few around Messines, with 0% of the land within 25 km touched by fire since 1986 (0.000% a year). Earthquakes add more: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.087 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. Hazard risk gives Messines a grade of C−, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Messines’s hazards
For Messines, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Messines faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Messines: C−
Two inputs always count for Messines, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Only 63 homes were tested in the survey area, so the radon share is rough. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Wildfire is rare near Messines: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0.1% within 5 km
Past fire around Messines’ homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
The land within 25 km of Messines burns at 0.000% a year on average, the low band; the typical Canadian town: 0.000%.
More forest grows near Messines’ homes (47% within 5 km) than across 25 km (40%).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Quebec · highest of 514
Among the 514 towns in Quebec, Mistissini burns fastest (0.31% a year); Messines is with the 145 near zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
The low band holds 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, and Messines sits at its very bottom; only 7.5% are above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for Messines
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Messines: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
No flood study on the national inventory covers Messines; ask the municipality, which is the authority for its flood maps.
Towns with a flood study on file
Only 45% of towns in Quebec have a flood study, short of Canada’s 58%, and Messines is not among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Messines’ homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Earthquakes cost buildings in Messines $0.087 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
The typical town loses $0.030 a year to shaking; Messines loses $0.087, 2.9 times as much.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The typical town in Quebec expects $0.14 a year in shaking damage; Messines expects less, $0.087, and La Pocatière the most, $0.48.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Messines sits above most of Canada’s 2,611 towns on earthquake risk; 27% are higher.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
For Messines the model prices shaking damage to buildings, nothing more.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs high around Messines: 13% of tested homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Messines’ survey area reads 13% over the guideline, well past the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%. Messines doesn’t get its own radon tests figures; the ones here come from the Outaouais health region.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
More homes top the guideline around Messines (13%) than in the typical town in Quebec (8.2%); 4.8% went over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
4.6% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have a higher share of homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Messines, in the 10–20% band with 22%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A low area share in Messines doesn’t clear a house, nor does a high one condemn it: test.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Messines
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Messines; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Messines, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Messines’ neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Messines | Low | $0.087 | 13% | None listed |
| Kitigan Zibi 1,261 · 11 km | Low | $0.099 | 13% | Yes |
| Maniwaki 3,803 · 15 km | Low | $0.13 | 13% | Yes |
| Déléage 2,047 · 15 km | Low | $0.094 | 13% | Yes |
| Gracefield 2,544 · 18 km | Low | $0.099 | 13% | Yes |
The fire record around Gracefield is a touch heavier than Messines’, but the band is the same: low (here low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Messines faces
What to do about the hazards Messines faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Messines’ included.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Messines without grading them.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Messines.
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Messines until then.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Messines
Is radon a problem in Messines?
Around Messines, 63 survey homes were tested and 13% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
Does Messines flood?
With 0 studies on the inventory, Messines’ flood risk is unmapped nationally; check with the municipality before buying.
How big is the earthquake risk in Messines?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Messines $0.087 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
How is Messines’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Messines C−, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Is Messines at risk of wildfire?
Fire has reached 0% of the land around Messines since 1986 (last in 2025); at low, it neither helps nor hurts the grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).