Photo: busand2003 · CC BY 3.0Melbourne is on Canada’s flood inventory: 1 listed, led by Gouvernement du Québec
The burned-area map is nearly blank around Melbourne, 0% within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. NRCan expects $0.043 of shaking damage a year per $1,000 of buildings in Melbourne, near the typical $0.030. Melbourne’s survey area, 7.3% over the radon guideline, is close to the typical town’s 6.6%. Hazard risk gives Melbourne a grade of B, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Melbourne’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Melbourne: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Melbourne faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Melbourne: B
Seismic risk and radon set Melbourne’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Only 55 homes were tested in the survey area, so the radon share is rough. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Melbourne: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Past fire around Melbourne’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Around Melbourne fire takes 0.000% of the land in a typical year, the typical Canadian town 0.000%, which is low.
Fire has stayed at least 23 km from Melbourne’s homes since 1986.
Near or far, forest fuel covers a similar share around Melbourne: 30% within 5 km and 29% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Quebec · highest of 514
Near-zero burning puts Melbourne with 145 of the 514 towns in Quebec, far below Mistissini at 0.31%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Most of the country’s 2,610 towns are low-band (92%, against 7.5% above); around Melbourne, burning rounds to zero.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
A flood study covers Melbourne, from Gouvernement du Québec: 1 on the inventory
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Melbourne: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
One study on the inventory touches Melbourne, Gouvernement du Québec’s from 1981, and its area can be large, so it says a map exists, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond-Lennoxville | Gouvernement du Québec | 1981 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Mapping in Quebec reaches 45% of towns, Melbourne among them, below the 58% across Canada.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Melbourne.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Expected shaking damage in Melbourne: $0.043 a year per $1,000
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Nothing unusual about Melbourne’s ground: $0.043 against a typical $0.030, 1.4 times.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Below the middle in Quebec: Melbourne’s $0.043 against a median of $0.14; La Pocatière has $0.48.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Melbourne sits mid-range among Canada’s 2,611 towns: 36% expect more shaking damage.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Melbourne’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon about average around Melbourne: 7.3% over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Source area for radon tests: the Estrie health region
Melbourne’s area sits close to the typical Canadian town: 7.3% over the guideline, against 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon around Melbourne is ordinary for towns in Quebec: 7.3%, beside a median of 8.2%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Between 5% and 10% of tests over the guideline: Melbourne, and 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 26% are higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The survey sampled homes around Melbourne; it can’t tell you your basement’s level.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Melbourne
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Melbourne; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Melbourne, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Melbourne’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | Low | $0.043 | 7.3% | Yes |
| Richmond 3,419 · 2.7 km | Low | $0.056 | 7.3% | Yes |
| Cleveland 1,624 · 5.3 km | Low | $0.041 | 7.3% | Yes |
| Durham-Sud 1,041 · 12 km | Low | $0.067 | 0% | None listed |
| Windsor 5,368 · 14 km | Low | $0.044 | 7.3% | Yes |
| Saint-François-Xavier-de-Brompton 2,650 · 14 km | Low | $0.047 | 7.3% | Yes |
| Saint-Félix-de-Kingsey 1,550 · 17 km | Low | $0.071 | 0% | None listed |
Fire is no heavier anywhere nearby than around Melbourne (low), with Richmond next at low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Melbourne faces
Practical steps for Melbourne’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Melbourne.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Melbourne is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Melbourne’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Melbourne’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Melbourne
Is Melbourne at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Melbourne’s low band (0% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2015) is short of the level that counts.
Does Melbourne flood?
There is flood mapping for Melbourne on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
How big is the earthquake risk in Melbourne?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Melbourne $0.043 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
How is Melbourne’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Melbourne B, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Is radon a problem in Melbourne?
The area’s survey found 7.3% of 55 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Melbourne.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).