Photo: Harfang · CC BY-SA 3.0Hazard risk in Baie-Saint-Paul is higher than in 86% of Canadian towns
Little of the land around Baie-Saint-Paul has burned: 0.6% within 25 km since 1986, or 0.02% a year. Earthquakes add more: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.29 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. Radon is about average around Baie-Saint-Paul: 8.8% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Baie-Saint-Paul grades D for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Baie-Saint-Paul’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Baie-Saint-Paul: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Baie-Saint-Paul faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Baie-Saint-Paul: D
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Baie-Saint-Paul with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #431 of 507 in Quebec and #2,423 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Baie-Saint-Paul: 0% within 5 km, 0.6% within 25 km
Past fire around Baie-Saint-Paul’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
The yearly burn rate around Baie-Saint-Paul is 0.02%, low beside 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
Within 5 km of Baie-Saint-Paul, 72% of the land is forest fuel; widen the ring to 25 km and it is 85%.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Quebec · highest of 513
At 0.02% a year, Baie-Saint-Paul is near the top in Quebec: 16th of 513, behind Mistissini (0.31%).
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Low, like 92% of the country’s 2,610 towns: the land around Baie-Saint-Paul burns, but slower than in the 7.5% above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Gouvernement du Québec has mapped flooding for Baie-Saint-Paul (1 study)
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Baie-Saint-Paul: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
One study on the inventory touches Baie-Saint-Paul, Gouvernement du Québec’s from 1979, and its area can be large, so it says a map exists, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baie-Saint-Paul-Saint-Urbain | Gouvernement du Québec | 1979 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Mapping in Quebec reaches 45% of towns, Baie-Saint-Paul among them, below the 58% across Canada.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Baie-Saint-Paul’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in Baie-Saint-Paul $0.29 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
At $0.29 per $1,000, Baie-Saint-Paul carries roughly 9.5 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Above the middle in Quebec: Baie-Saint-Paul’s $0.29 against a median of $0.14, with La Pocatière highest at $0.48.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Baie-Saint-Paul is in the top tenth of Canada’s 2,611 towns for earthquake risk; 6% rank higher.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Baie-Saint-Paul’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Some radon around Baie-Saint-Paul: 8.8% of area homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Shared with the rest of the Capitale-Nationale health region: radon tests
Baie-Saint-Paul’s area sits close to the typical Canadian town: 8.8% over the guideline, against 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Baie-Saint-Paul’s area, at 8.8%, is close to the median in Quebec (8.2%); 2.5% of its tests passed 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Baie-Saint-Paul is in the 5–10% band with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 26% have more.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A survey sample isn’t a map: any home in Baie-Saint-Paul can be high, and a three-month test is the only way to know.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Baie-Saint-Paul
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Baie-Saint-Paul; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Baie-Saint-Paul, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Baie-Saint-Paul’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baie-Saint-Paul | Low | $0.29 | 8.8% | Yes |
| L'Isle-aux-Coudres 1,083 · 11 km | Low | $0.39 | 8.8% | None listed |
| Saint-Urbain 1,431 · 13 km | Moderate | $0.25 | 8.8% | Yes |
| Les Éboulements 1,661 · 14 km | Low | $0.34 | 8.8% | None listed |
| Petite-Rivière-Saint-François 1,150 · 15 km | Low | $0.24 | 8.8% | None listed |
| Saint-Hilarion 1,221 · 15 km | Low | $0.37 | 8.8% | None listed |
Next door, Saint-Urbain sits in a moderate fire band; Baie-Saint-Paul is low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Baie-Saint-Paul faces
What to do about the hazards Baie-Saint-Paul faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap the water heater down.
- Keep 72 hours of supplies.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
- Is earthquake cover included?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Baie-Saint-Paul’s.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Baie-Saint-Paul.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Baie-Saint-Paul is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Baie-Saint-Paul’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Baie-Saint-Paul
How is Baie-Saint-Paul’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Baie-Saint-Paul D, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Does Baie-Saint-Paul flood?
There is flood mapping for Baie-Saint-Paul on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
Is radon a problem in Baie-Saint-Paul?
In Health Canada’s survey, 8.8% of 160 homes tested in Baie-Saint-Paul’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Is Baie-Saint-Paul at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 0.6% of the land within 25 km of Baie-Saint-Paul has burned since 1986, the last in 2022, a low band that leaves Risk alone.
How big is the earthquake risk in Baie-Saint-Paul?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Baie-Saint-Paul $0.29 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).