Photo: Cantons-de-l'Est · CC BY-SA 4.0Hazard risk in Armagh is higher than in 85% of Canadian towns
Around Armagh, wildfire is practically absent from the record: 0% within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. Earthquakes add more: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.082 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. In Health Canada’s survey, 13% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Hazard risk gives Armagh a grade of C−, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Armagh’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Armagh: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Armagh faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Armagh: C−
Earthquake risk and radon make Armagh’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Armagh: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Past fire around Armagh’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Forty years of fire maps put Armagh at 0.000% a year, low next to the typical Canadian town’s 0.000%.
Nothing inside 5 km of Armagh’s homes has burned since 1986, and the nearest scar is 17 km off.
The ring nearest Armagh is the most wooded: 69% forest fuel within 5 km against 59% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Quebec · highest of 514
To three decimals the burn rate around Armagh is zero, as for 145 of the 514 towns in Quebec, while Mistissini reaches 0.31%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are above the low band, which holds 92%; Armagh, at a rounded zero, is far from them.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Armagh
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Armagh: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
Nationally, Armagh has no listed flood study; the municipality is the place to ask.
Towns with a flood study on file
Only 45% of towns in Quebec have a flood study, short of Canada’s 58%, and Armagh is not among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood studies don’t enter the grade; they are listed so you can open the official map for Armagh.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Shaking is Armagh’s costliest hazard: $0.082 a year per $1,000
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Roughly 2.7 times the typical $0.030: Armagh’s $0.082 marks real seismic exposure.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk in Quebec peaks in La Pocatière ($0.48); Armagh, at $0.082, is below the median of $0.14.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
28% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Armagh, which places it in the upper third.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Armagh’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs high around Armagh: 13% of tested homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Armagh’s area, at 13%, is above the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town, so testing is worth more here than most places.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Armagh’s area, at 13%, is above the median in Quebec (8.2%), and 0.6% of its tests passed 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
More high tests than most: Armagh sits in a band that only 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns share, with 4.6% above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Armagh can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: one figure for all of the Chaudiere-Appalaches health region
Weather and fire alerts for Armagh
Alerts for Armagh come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Armagh are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Armagh’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armagh | Low | $0.082 | 13% | None listed |
| Saint-Raphaël 2,488 · 14 km | Low | $0.11 | 13% | None listed |
| Saint-Damien-de-Buckland 1,840 · 14 km | Low | $0.071 | 13% | None listed |
| Saint-François-de-la-Rivière-du-Sud 1,550 · 17 km | Low | $0.15 | 13% | None listed |
| Saint-Lazare-de-Bellechasse 1,330 · 19 km | Low | $0.092 | 13% | None listed |
Armagh’s low band tops its neighbours; Saint-Raphaël is next (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Armagh faces
Practical steps for Armagh’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Armagh takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Armagh.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Armagh’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Armagh’s figure is its subdivision’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Armagh
Does Armagh flood?
The inventory has 0 studies for Armagh, and an empty list isn’t a clean bill: the municipality holds any flood maps.
How is Armagh’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Armagh grades C− for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Is radon a problem in Armagh?
The area’s survey found 13% of 175 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Armagh.
Is Armagh at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Armagh’s low band (0% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2023) is short of the level that counts.
How big is the earthquake risk in Armagh?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Armagh’s buildings lose $0.082 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).