Photo: Chris Woodrich · CC BY-SA 4.0Hazards in South Central: wildfire low, radon over the guideline in 14% of tested homes
Fire seldom reaches South Central: since 1986, 0.2% of the land within 25 km has burned (0.008% a year). Seismic risk in South Central sits near the middle: $0.019 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Hazard risk gives South Central a grade of C+; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about South Central’s hazards
For South Central, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What South Central faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in South Central: C+
Two inputs always count for South Central, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
Its place: #682 of 866 in Ontario and #1,870 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Few fires near South Central: 0.2% within 5 km, 0.2% within 25 km
Past fire around South Central’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
At 0.008% of the land a year, South Central’s burn rate is in the low band; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
Forest makes up 0% of the land within 5 km of South Central and 0.3% within 25 km, little for a forest fire to run through.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
At 0.008% a year, South Central is near the top in Ontario: 26th of 871, behind Sioux Lookout (0.16%).
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
South Central is in the low band with 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns; 7.5% sit in moderate or higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for South Central
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for South Central: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists no study whose area touches South Central, which doesn’t mean it has never been mapped.
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are common in Ontario, 69% of towns against 58% nationally, but none in the inventory touches South Central.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood studies don’t enter the grade; they are listed so you can open the official map for South Central.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Expected shaking damage in South Central: $0.019 a year per $1,000
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
South Central’s $0.019 is close to the typical town’s $0.030 (0.6 times as much).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The typical town in Ontario expects $0.043 a year in shaking damage; South Central expects less, $0.019, and Alexandria the most, $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Toward the quiet end of Canada’s range: 66% of its 2,611 towns sit above South Central.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
What a quake does after the shaking, fire, landslides, tsunami, falls outside NRCan’s figure for South Central.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean). · Area behind the earthquake risk figures: the city of Windsor
Radon runs high around South Central: 14% of tested homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
A higher share than most: 14% of tested homes around South Central, the typical Canadian town 6.6%. Figures for radon tests are published for the Windsor-Essex County Health Unit as a whole, not for South Central alone.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs higher around South Central than in most towns in Ontario: 14% over the guideline (4% is typical), 1% over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
South Central is in the 10–20% band, with 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; only 4.6% are higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A low area share in South Central doesn’t clear a house, nor does a high one condemn it: test.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in South Central
Alerts for South Central come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near South Central are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around South Central
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Central | Low | $0.019 | 14% | None listed |
| City Centre 10,269 · 1.7 km | Low | $0.019 | 14% | Yes |
| Walkerville 19,541 · 1.8 km | Low | $0.019 | 14% | Yes |
| South Cameron 11,804 · 2.0 km | Low | $0.019 | 14% | None listed |
| River West 13,940 · 2.3 km | Low | $0.019 | 14% | Yes |
| South Walkerville 6,129 · 2.4 km | Low | $0.019 | 14% | None listed |
| Remington Park 5,783 · 2.9 km | Low | $0.019 | 14% | None listed |
City Centre burns a little more than South Central, in the same low band (low here).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what South Central faces
What to do about the hazards South Central faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for South Central.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against South Central.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, South Central’s included.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for South Central is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
Questions about flooding and hazards in South Central
Is radon a problem in South Central?
In Health Canada’s survey, 14% of 195 homes tested in South Central’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Does South Central flood?
Nothing is listed for South Central on the national inventory (0); local maps may still exist with the municipality.
How big is the earthquake risk in South Central?
In NRCan’s seismic model, South Central’s buildings lose $0.019 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Is South Central at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 0.2% of the land within 25 km of South Central has burned since 1986, the last in 2010, a low band that leaves Risk alone.
How is South Central’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives South Central C+, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).