Photo: Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit , Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center · Public domainFew places are as safe from hazards as Hope: it beats 90% of Canadian towns
For Hope, wildfire history is close to nil: 0% of nearby land since 1986, 0.000% a year. Earthquake risk in Hope is ordinary: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.028 a year per $1,000 of value, close to the typical town’s $0.030. In Health Canada’s survey, just 0% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Hazard risk gives Hope a grade of A, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Hope’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Hope: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Hope faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Hope: A
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Hope with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #74 of 866 in Ontario and #383 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Hope has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Past fire around Hope’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Fire claims 0.000% of the land around Hope each year, a low band, with the typical Canadian town at 0.000%.
Forest makes up 2.5% of the land within 5 km of Hope and 4.9% within 25 km, little for a forest fire to run through.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Among the 871 towns in Ontario, Sioux Lookout burns fastest (0.16% a year); Hope is with the 638 near zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
The low band holds 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, and Hope sits at its very bottom; only 7.5% are above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
A flood study covers Hope, from Toronto Regional Conservation Authority: 1 on the inventory
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Hope: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
The flood study touching Hope is Toronto Regional Conservation Authority’s, dated 2021; its own map shows the zones street by street.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Floodline Consolidation | Toronto Regional Conservation Authority | 2021 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are common in Ontario: 69% of towns have one, against 58% nationally, and Hope is among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Hope.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Hope: $0.028 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
With $0.028 of shaking damage a year per $1,000, Hope is about even with the typical $0.030 (0.9 times).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk in Ontario peaks in Alexandria ($0.21); Hope, at $0.028, is below the median of $0.043.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Middle of the pack: 51% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have more earthquake risk than Hope.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Hope’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean). · Earthquake risk: the city of Vaughan
Little radon around Hope: 0% of area homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Radon tests for the York Regional Health Unit
Radon runs below the typical Canadian town (6.6%) in Hope’s area, at 0%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Fewer homes top the guideline around Hope (0%) than in the typical town in Ontario (4%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
The quietest radon band, under 5%, holds 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns and Hope; 63% sit higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Hope can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Hope
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Hope; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Hope, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Hope
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hope | Low | $0.028 | 0% | Yes |
| Teston 7,437 · 2.1 km | Low | $0.028 | 0% | Yes |
| Upper Thornhill Estates 10,435 · 2.9 km | Low | $0.028 | 0% | Yes |
| Carrville Corners 13,004 · 3.7 km | Low | $0.028 | 0% | Yes |
| Peace Village 14,598 · 3.8 km | Low | $0.028 | 0% | Yes |
| Maple 20,122 · 3.8 km | Low | $0.028 | 0% | Yes |
| The Valleys of Thornhill 9,979 · 4.4 km | Low | $0.028 | 0% | Yes |
Among its neighbours Hope has the most fire on record (low); Teston follows (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Hope faces
What to do about the hazards Hope faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Hope.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Hope’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Hope’s.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Hope takes its 2007 health region’s share.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Hope
Does Hope flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Hope; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
How big is the earthquake risk in Hope?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Hope $0.028 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Is Hope at risk of wildfire?
Very little by the national record: Hope’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Is radon a problem in Hope?
In Health Canada’s survey, 0% of 95 homes tested in Hope’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
How is Hope’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Hope A, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).