Photo: Danielle Scott · CC BY-SA 2.0Hazards in New Toronto are mild: low wildfire and earthquake risk, and 2.7% of area homes above the radon guideline
Around New Toronto, wildfire is practically absent from the record: 0% within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. Seismic risk in New Toronto sits near the middle: $0.043 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Hazard risk gives New Toronto a grade of A−, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about New Toronto’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for New Toronto: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What New Toronto faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in New Toronto: A−
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like New Toronto with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #285 of 866 in Ontario and #700 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Only 74 homes were tested in the survey area, so the radon share is rough. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near New Toronto: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Past fire around New Toronto’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Forty years of fire maps put New Toronto at 0.000% a year, low next to the typical Canadian town’s 0.000%.
Forest fuel is scarce around New Toronto: 0.3% of the land within 5 km, 0.5% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Of the 871 towns in Ontario, 638 have a burn rate that rounds to zero, New Toronto among them; Sioux Lookout leads at 0.16% a year.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
The low band holds 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, and New Toronto sits at its very bottom; only 7.5% are above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for New Toronto
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for New Toronto: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
An empty entry for New Toronto on the inventory isn’t proof of safety; ask locally for flood maps.
Towns with a flood study on file
Missing from a well-mapped province: New Toronto has no study, where 69% of towns in Ontario have one against 58% nationally.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood studies don’t enter the grade; they are listed so you can open the official map for New Toronto.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Earthquakes cost buildings in New Toronto $0.043 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
New Toronto’s $0.043 is close to the typical town’s $0.030 (1.4 times as much).
Figures for earthquake risk are published for the city of Toronto as a whole, not for New Toronto alone.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Neither high nor low in Ontario: New Toronto’s $0.043 sits by the median of $0.043, while Alexandria reaches $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Neither high nor low for Canada: 36% of the 2,611 towns expect more damage than New Toronto.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to New Toronto’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
2.7% of homes tested around New Toronto are over the radon guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
New Toronto’s area, at 2.7%, is below the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town, though any one home can still be high.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
The median in Ontario is 4% over 200 Bq/m³; around New Toronto it is 2.7%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
The quietest radon band, under 5%, holds 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns and New Toronto; 63% sit higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A survey sample isn’t a map: any home in New Toronto can be high, and a three-month test is the only way to know.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Not measured by town: radon tests (the City of Toronto Health Unit)
Weather and fire alerts for New Toronto
Alerts for New Toronto come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Evacuation orders for New Toronto come from the municipality or the province, while CWFIS maps fire danger every day.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around New Toronto
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Toronto | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | None listed |
| Long Branch 11,400 · 1.8 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Mimico-Queensway 18,207 · 2.2 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Alderwood 12,596 · 2.8 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Humber Bay Shores 22,633 · 3.4 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Stonegate-Queensway 25,745 · 4.1 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Etobicoke City Centre 23,856 · 4.7 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
Among its neighbours New Toronto has the most fire on record (low); Long Branch follows (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what New Toronto faces
What to do about the hazards New Toronto faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in New Toronto.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, New Toronto takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around New Toronto’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; New Toronto’s figure is its subdivision’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in New Toronto
Is New Toronto at risk of wildfire?
Hardly at all on record: 0% of the land within 25 km of New Toronto since 1986, a low band, though small grass fires aren’t mapped.
Does New Toronto flood?
Nothing is listed for New Toronto on the national inventory (0); local maps may still exist with the municipality.
How big is the earthquake risk in New Toronto?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in New Toronto $0.043 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Is radon a problem in New Toronto?
In Health Canada’s survey, 2.7% of 74 homes tested in New Toronto’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
How is New Toronto’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives New Toronto A−, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).