Photo: hill10003 · CC BY-SA 3.0Flood mapping exists for Long Branch: 3 on record, latest by Toronto Regional Conservation Authority
Around Long Branch, wildfire is practically absent from the record: 0% within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. NRCan expects $0.043 of shaking damage a year per $1,000 of buildings in Long Branch, near the typical $0.030. Fewer homes than usual carry radon here, 2.7% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Long Branch grades A− for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Long Branch’s hazards
For Long Branch, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Long Branch faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Long Branch grades A− for hazard risk
Earthquake risk and radon make Long Branch’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
Its place: #285 of 866 in Ontario and #700 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The radon share rests on 74 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Few fires near Long Branch: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Past fire around Long Branch’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Next to the typical Canadian town (0.000% a year), Long Branch’s 0.000% is in the low band.
Land that isn’t forest covers nearly all the ground around Long Branch: forest fuel is 0% within 5 km and 0.5% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Near-zero burning puts Long Branch with 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario, far below Sioux Lookout at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are above the low band, which holds 92%; Long Branch, at a rounded zero, is far from them.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Long Branch is on the flood map inventory: 3 studies, latest by Toronto Regional Conservation Authority
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Long Branch: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
Toronto Regional Conservation Authority and others have studied flooding in areas that include Long Branch: 3 studies, the latest from 2021.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Floodline Consolidation | Toronto Regional Conservation Authority | 2021 | final |
| Serson Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2019 | final · not public |
| Lake Ontario Shoreline | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2005 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Mapping in Ontario reaches 69% of towns, Long Branch included, beside 58% across Canada.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
No single decade dominates: 3 studies for Long Branch between the 2000s and the 2020s.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching Long Branch.
Flood is shown here, never graded: a study says where a map exists, not how many of Long Branch’s homes stand in a flood zone.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Long Branch: $0.043 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
1.4 times the typical $0.030: Long Branch’s $0.043 is ordinary.
Nobody publishes earthquake risk for Long Branch alone, so this card uses the figure for the city of Toronto.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Shaking damage around Long Branch runs at $0.043 a year, near the $0.043 of the typical town in Ontario; Alexandria has $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Middle of the pack: 36% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have more earthquake risk than Long Branch.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
What a quake does after the shaking, fire, landslides, tsunami, falls outside NRCan’s figure for Long Branch.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
2.7% of homes tested around Long Branch are over the radon guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Long Branch’s area, at 2.7%, is below the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town, though any one home can still be high. Figures for radon tests are published for the City of Toronto Health Unit as a whole, not for Long Branch alone.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs lower around Long Branch than in most towns in Ontario: 2.7% against 4%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Few tests over the guideline: Long Branch shares the bottom band with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns, below the other 63%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Neighbouring homes in Long Branch can differ a lot; only a long-term test tells you about yours.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Long Branch
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Long Branch; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Smoke and fire warnings for Long Branch come through Environment Canada and Alert Ready; the fire map is CWFIS’s.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Long Branch
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Branch | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Alderwood 12,596 · 1.6 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| New Toronto 11,502 · 1.8 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | None listed |
| Lakeview 21,789 · 3.1 km | Low | $0.040 | 0% | Yes |
| Mimico-Queensway 18,207 · 3.8 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Dixie 3,749 · 4.4 km | Low | $0.040 | 0% | Yes |
| Etobicoke City Centre 23,856 · 4.8 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
Fire is no heavier anywhere nearby than around Long Branch (low), with Alderwood next at low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Long Branch faces
Practical steps for Long Branch’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. For Long Branch, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Long Branch’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Long Branch takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Long Branch.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Long Branch
How big is the earthquake risk in Long Branch?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Long Branch’s buildings lose $0.043 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Does Long Branch flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Long Branch; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
Is Long Branch at risk of wildfire?
No meaningful wildfire history near Long Branch: 0% of nearby land since 1986, band low.
Is radon a problem in Long Branch?
2.7% of the 74 homes Health Canada tested around Long Branch topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
How is Long Branch’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Long Branch’s Hazard risk grade is A−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).