Photo: Jeff Hitchcock from Seattle, WA, USA · CC BY 2.0Flood mapping exists for Morningside: 1 on record, latest by Toronto Regional Conservation Authority
No wildfire is mapped within 25 km of Morningside’s homes since 1986 (0% of the land, 0.001% a year). Seismic risk in Morningside sits near the middle: $0.043 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. In Health Canada’s survey, just 2.7% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Hazard risk gives Morningside a grade of A−; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Morningside’s hazards
For Morningside, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Morningside faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Morningside grades A− for hazard risk
Earthquake risk and radon make Morningside’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
Its place: #285 of 866 in Ontario and #700 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The radon share rests on 74 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Little of the land around Morningside has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Past fire around Morningside’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
The land within 25 km of Morningside burns at 0.001% a year on average, the low band; the typical Canadian town: 0.000%.
The closest burn since 1986 lies 8.6 km from Morningside’s homes, none within 5 km.
Forest makes up 3.1% of the land within 5 km of Morningside and 4.6% within 25 km, little for a forest fire to run through.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Sioux Lookout burns fastest in Ontario at 0.16% a year; Morningside, at 0.001%, ranks 83rd of 871.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns burn fast enough to rank moderate or above; Morningside stays low, with 92%.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Morningside is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Toronto Regional Conservation Authority
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Morningside: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
For Morningside the inventory points to Toronto Regional Conservation Authority’s 2021 study, whose map is the one to check.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Floodline Consolidation | Toronto Regional Conservation Authority | 2021 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Morningside is one of the 69% of towns in Ontario with a flood study on file; across Canada it is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood mapping is shown for Morningside to be opened and checked, never turned into a grade.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Morningside: $0.043 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
1.4 times the typical $0.030: Morningside’s $0.043 is ordinary.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
About level with the typical town in Ontario: Morningside’s $0.043 against $0.043; Alexandria reaches $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Morningside’s earthquake risk lands near the centre of Canada’s range; 36% of the 2,611 towns are higher.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
For Morningside the model prices shaking damage to buildings, nothing more.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean). · Earthquake risk: one figure for all of the city of Toronto
Radon runs low around Morningside: 2.7% of tested homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Where the typical Canadian town has 6.6% of homes over the guideline, Morningside’s area has fewer, 2.7%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
The median in Ontario is 4% over 200 Bq/m³; around Morningside it is 2.7%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Under 5% puts Morningside with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 63% have more high tests.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Neighbouring homes in Morningside can differ a lot; only a long-term test tells you about yours.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests published for the City of Toronto Health Unit, not by town
Where to get warnings in Morningside
Alerts for Morningside come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Morningside are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Morningside
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morningside | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| West Hill 28,414 · 2.5 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Highland Creek 12,678 · 2.7 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Golfdale-Cedarbrae-Woburn 27,429 · 2.7 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Malvern East 26,113 · 2.7 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Malvern West 17,354 · 2.8 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Woburn North 26,662 · 2.8 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
West Hill (low) has the heaviest fire record of Morningside’s neighbours, and Morningside (low) matches or beats it.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Morningside faces
Practical steps for Morningside’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. For Morningside, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Morningside’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Morningside takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Morningside.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Morningside
How big is the earthquake risk in Morningside?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Morningside $0.043 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Is radon a problem in Morningside?
The area’s survey found 2.7% of 74 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Morningside.
Does Morningside flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Morningside; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
Is Morningside at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Morningside’s low band (0% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2001) is short of the level that counts.
How is Morningside’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Morningside grades A− for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).