Photo: EelamStyleZ · CC BY-SA 4.0A flood study covers Malvern East: 1 on the national inventory, the newest from Toronto Regional Conservation Authority
Since 1986 almost nothing has burned near Malvern East: 0% of the land within 25 km, or 0.001% a year. For earthquakes Malvern East is middling, $0.043 a year per $1,000 against $0.030 for the typical town. Fewer homes than usual carry radon here, 2.7% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Hazard risk gives Malvern East a grade of A−; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Malvern East’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Malvern East: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Malvern East faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Malvern East: A−
Seismic risk and radon set Malvern East’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #285 of 866 in Ontario and #700 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Only 74 homes were tested in the survey area, so the radon share is rough. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Malvern East has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Past fire around Malvern East’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
The yearly burn rate around Malvern East is 0.001%, low beside 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
No fire has burned within 5 km of Malvern East’s homes since 1986; the nearest burn is 7.1 km away.
Forest fuel rises from 4% within 5 km of Malvern East to 5.1% within 25 km: the fuel lies away from homes.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Malvern East ranks 83rd of the 871 towns in Ontario for burn rate, at 0.001% a year; Sioux Lookout leads with 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Some fire is mapped around Malvern East, but not enough to leave the low band, where 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Malvern East is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Toronto Regional Conservation Authority
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Malvern East: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
Toronto Regional Conservation Authority holds the flood mapping that covers Malvern East (2021), linked below.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Floodline Consolidation | Toronto Regional Conservation Authority | 2021 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
69% of towns in Ontario have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Malvern East has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Malvern East floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Malvern East: $0.043 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Nothing unusual about Malvern East’s ground: $0.043 against a typical $0.030, 1.4 times.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Shaking damage around Malvern East runs at $0.043 a year, near the $0.043 of the typical town in Ontario; Alexandria has $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Neither high nor low for Canada: 36% of the 2,611 towns expect more damage than Malvern East.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Malvern East’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean). · Earthquake risk: the city of Toronto
Radon runs low around Malvern East: 2.7% of tested homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Measured across the City of Toronto Health Unit: radon tests
Fewer homes than usual test high around Malvern East: 2.7% against 6.6% for the typical Canadian town.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Malvern East’s area, at 2.7%, is below the median in Ontario (4%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
63% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have a higher share of homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Malvern East’s band, which holds 37%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The survey sampled homes around Malvern East; it can’t tell you your basement’s level.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Malvern East
Alerts for Malvern East come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Evacuation orders for Malvern East come from the municipality or the province, while CWFIS maps fire danger every day.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Malvern East
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malvern East | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Malvern West 17,354 · 0.9 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Morningside Heights 24,972 · 1.9 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Morningside 17,708 · 2.7 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Highland Creek 12,678 · 3.6 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Woburn North 26,662 · 4.2 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Agincourt South-Malvern West 24,438 · 4.5 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
Nowhere around Malvern East burns more: Malvern West, the closest rival, is low to its low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Malvern East faces
Practical steps for Malvern East’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Malvern East takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Malvern East’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Malvern East.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Malvern East’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Malvern East
How big is the earthquake risk in Malvern East?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Malvern East’s buildings lose $0.043 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Does Malvern East flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Malvern East; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
Is Malvern East at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Malvern East’s low band (0% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2001) is short of the level that counts.
How is Malvern East’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Malvern East A−, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Is radon a problem in Malvern East?
The area’s survey found 2.7% of 74 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Malvern East.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).