Photo: Tudor Costache / TheGiantVermin at English Wikipedia · CC BY 2.5Simcoe is on Canada’s flood inventory: 1 listed, led by Grand River Conservation Authority
Around Simcoe, wildfire is practically absent from the record: 0% within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. Shaking is about as much of a worry in Simcoe as in most places, at $0.026 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Radon is lower than usual: 2.6% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Hazard risk gives Simcoe a grade of A−, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Simcoe’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Simcoe: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Simcoe faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Simcoe: A−
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Simcoe with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #230 of 866 in Ontario and #574 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Simcoe has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Past fire around Simcoe’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Simcoe burns at 0.000% a year, low against 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
Only 1.1% of the land within 25 km of Simcoe is forest fuel, and 1.7% close in.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
To three decimals the burn rate around Simcoe is zero, as for 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario, while Sioux Lookout reaches 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are above the low band, which holds 92%; Simcoe, at a rounded zero, is far from them.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Simcoe is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Grand River Conservation Authority
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Simcoe: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
For Simcoe the inventory points to Grand River Conservation Authority’s 2018 study, whose map is the one to check.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grand River Regulatory Floodplain | Grand River Conservation Authority | 2018 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Simcoe is one of the 69% of towns in Ontario with a flood study on file; across Canada it is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood studies don’t enter the grade; they are listed so you can open the official map for Simcoe.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Simcoe: $0.026 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
0.9 times the typical $0.030: Simcoe’s $0.026 is ordinary.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The typical town in Ontario expects $0.043 a year in shaking damage; Simcoe expects less, $0.026, and Alexandria the most, $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Simcoe sits mid-range among Canada’s 2,611 towns: 53% expect more shaking damage.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Simcoe’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs low around Simcoe: 2.6% of tested homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Measured across the Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit: radon tests
Fewer homes than usual test high around Simcoe: 2.6% against 6.6% for the typical Canadian town.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Against the typical town in Ontario (4%), the area around Simcoe has fewer high tests: 2.6%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Radon rarely tops the guideline around Simcoe, as for 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 63% see more.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A survey sample isn’t a map: any home in Simcoe can be high, and a three-month test is the only way to know.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Simcoe
Alerts for Simcoe come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Alert Ready carries evacuation orders for Simcoe to phones; CWFIS shows the day’s fire danger.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Simcoe faces
What to do about the hazards Simcoe faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Simcoe’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Simcoe takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Simcoe.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Simcoe’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Simcoe
How big is the earthquake risk in Simcoe?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Simcoe $0.026 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Is radon a problem in Simcoe?
Around Simcoe, 116 survey homes were tested and 2.6% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
How is Simcoe’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Simcoe’s Hazard risk grade is A−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is Simcoe at risk of wildfire?
Hardly at all on record: 0% of the land within 25 km of Simcoe since 1986, a low band, though small grass fires aren’t mapped.
Does Simcoe flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Simcoe; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).