Photo: unknown. Canada. Department of National Defence. · Public domainPicton is on Canada’s flood inventory: 2 listed, led by Quinte Conservation Authority
The burned-area map is nearly blank around Picton, 0% within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. Earthquake risk in Picton is ordinary: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.040 a year per $1,000 of value, close to the typical town’s $0.030. More homes than usual carry radon here, 12% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Hazard risk gives Picton a grade of C, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Picton’s hazards
For Picton, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Picton faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Picton grades C for hazard risk
For Picton, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #841 of 866 in Ontario and #2,087 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Wildfire is rare near Picton: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Picton’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
The yearly burn rate around Picton is 0.000%, low beside 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
About as much forest grows next to Picton’s homes (12% within 5 km) as across 25 km (14%).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Among the 871 towns in Ontario, Sioux Lookout burns fastest (0.16% a year); Picton is with the 638 near zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are in the low band and 7.5% above it; Picton is among the many where the yearly burn rate rounds to zero.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Picton is on the flood map inventory: 2 studies, latest by Quinte Conservation Authority
Flood studies whose area touches Picton, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
2 studies on the inventory touch Picton, the newest Quinte Conservation Authority’s from 2024, and their areas can be large, so they say maps exist, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consecon Lake and Creek | Quinte Conservation Authority | 2024 | under review |
| Lake Ontario Shoreline Management Plan | Ganaraska Region Conservation Authority | 2020 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Picton is one of the 69% of towns in Ontario with a flood study on file; across Canada it is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Picton floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Picton: $0.040 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
With $0.040 of shaking damage a year per $1,000, Picton is about even with the typical $0.030 (1.3 times).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Typical for its province: Picton at $0.040 beside a median in Ontario of $0.043, with Alexandria on top at $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Around half of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Picton (43%).
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Only shaking damage to buildings in Picton is counted; landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and fire after a quake aren’t.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs high around Picton: 12% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
More homes than usual test high around Picton: 12% against 6.6% for the typical Canadian town.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs higher around Picton than in most towns in Ontario: 12% over the guideline (4% is typical), 2% over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Picton is in the 10–20% band, with 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; only 4.6% are higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Health Canada advises testing every home, Picton’s included, whatever the area’s figure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests published for the Hastings and Prince Edward Counties Health Unit, not by town
Where to get warnings in Picton
Alerts for Picton come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Evacuation orders for Picton come from the municipality or the province, while CWFIS maps fire danger every day.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Picton’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Picton | Low | $0.040 | 12% | Yes |
| Tyendinaga Mohawk Territory 3,028 · 18 km | Low | $0.043 | 12% | Yes |
Among its neighbours Picton has the most fire on record (low); Tyendinaga Mohawk Territory follows (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Picton faces
Practical steps for Picton’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. For Picton, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Picton without grading them.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Picton’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Picton until then.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Picton
Does Picton flood?
A flood study covers Picton on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
Is Picton at risk of wildfire?
The burned-area record shows next to nothing around Picton (0% within 25 km since 1986), so its band is low.
How is Picton’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Picton grades C for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Is radon a problem in Picton?
12% of the 99 homes Health Canada tested around Picton topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
How big is the earthquake risk in Picton?
About $0.040 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Picton.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).