Photo: Joe Mabel (on Flickr as Joe Mabel from Seattle, US) · CC BY-SA 3.0Pickering faces fewer hazards than 89% of Canadian towns
Burn scars are few around Pickering, with 0% of the land within 25 km touched by fire since 1986 (0.000% a year). Earthquake risk in Pickering is ordinary: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.031 a year per $1,000 of value, close to the typical town’s $0.030. Radon is lower than usual: 0% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Hazard risk gives Pickering a grade of A, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Pickering’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Pickering: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Pickering faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Pickering grades A for hazard risk
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Pickering with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #158 of 866 in Ontario and #472 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Pickering: 0.1% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Past fire around Pickering’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
The yearly burn rate around Pickering is 0.000%, low beside 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
11% of the land within 5 km of Pickering is forest fuel, close to the 11% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Fire has taken almost none of the land around Pickering, as for 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario; Sioux Lookout tops the list at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Like most of Canada’s 2,610 towns (92%), Pickering is in the low band, with a burn rate of zero to three decimals; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
4 flood studies cover Pickering, the newest from Central Lake Ontario Conservation Authority
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Pickering: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
The newest of 4 studies covering Pickering is Central Lake Ontario Conservation Authority’s, from 2025; open its map to see the zones.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lynde Creek Watershed | Central Lake Ontario Conservation Authority | 2025 | final |
| Frenchman's Bay Watershed Limit | Toronto & Region Conservation Authority | 2024 | final |
| Toronto Floodline Consolidation | Toronto Regional Conservation Authority | 2021 | final |
| Duffins Creek | Toronto and Region Conservation Authority | 2020 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Its flood study puts Pickering with 69% of towns in Ontario; Canada’s share is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood mapping is shown for Pickering to be opened and checked, never turned into a grade.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Expected shaking damage in Pickering: $0.031 a year per $1,000
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Pickering’s $0.031 matches the typical town’s $0.030.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Below the middle in Ontario: Pickering’s $0.031 against a median of $0.043; Alexandria has $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Pickering’s earthquake risk lands near the centre of Canada’s range; 48% of the 2,611 towns are higher.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Pickering’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
0% of homes tested around Pickering are over the radon guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Radon runs below the typical Canadian town (6.6%) in Pickering’s area, at 0%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs lower around Pickering than in most towns in Ontario: 0% against 4%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
The quietest radon band, under 5%, holds 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns and Pickering; 63% sit higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Basements, soil and how a house is sealed decide its radon, so in Pickering only a test can say.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Area behind the radon tests figures: the Durham Regional Health Unit
Weather and fire alerts for Pickering
Alerts for Pickering come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Alert Ready carries evacuation orders for Pickering to phones; CWFIS shows the day’s fire danger.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Pickering
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pickering | Low | $0.031 | 0% | Yes |
| West Rouge 20,915 · 5.9 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Ajax 141,111 · 6.6 km | Low | $0.042 | 0% | Yes |
| Centennial Scarborough 13,453 · 7.3 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Highland Creek 12,678 · 7.9 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Morningside Heights 24,972 · 8.5 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Malvern East 26,113 · 9.7 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
The fire record around West Rouge is a touch heavier than Pickering’s, but the band is the same: low (here low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Pickering faces
What to do about the hazards Pickering faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Pickering sits in.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Pickering’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Pickering floods.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Pickering’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Pickering
Does Pickering flood?
Pickering’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
How big is the earthquake risk in Pickering?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Pickering’s buildings lose $0.031 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
How is Pickering’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Pickering’s Hazard risk grade is A, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is Pickering at risk of wildfire?
Fire has reached 0% of the land around Pickering since 1986 (last in 2001); at low, it neither helps nor hurts the grade.
Is radon a problem in Pickering?
Around Pickering, 95 survey homes were tested and 0% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).