Photo: P199 · CC BY-SA 3.0A flood study covers Metcalfe: 2 on the national inventory, the newest from South Nation Conservation
The national fire record shows next to nothing around Metcalfe, 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986 (0.000% a year). Earthquakes add more: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.15 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. About as many homes carry radon around Metcalfe as elsewhere, 6.2% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Hazard risk gives Metcalfe a grade of C+, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Metcalfe’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Metcalfe: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Metcalfe faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Metcalfe: C+
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Metcalfe with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #703 of 866 in Ontario and #1,894 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The radon share rests on 64 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Metcalfe has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Past fire around Metcalfe’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Around Metcalfe fire takes 0.000% of the land in a typical year, the typical Canadian town 0.000%, which is low.
Little near Metcalfe’s homes can carry a forest fire; only 4.5% of the land within 5 km is forest fuel, and 3.4% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Sioux Lookout has the highest burn rate in Ontario, 0.16% a year; around Metcalfe, as around 638 of the 871 towns, it rounds to zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are above the low band, which holds 92%; Metcalfe, at a rounded zero, is far from them.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Metcalfe is on the flood map inventory: 2 studies, latest by South Nation Conservation
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Metcalfe: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
South Nation Conservation and others have studied flooding in areas that include Metcalfe: 2 studies, the latest from 2025.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delineating Flood Hazard and Associated Impacts in the Quaile Creek Watershed | South Nation Conservation | 2025 | final · not public |
| Castor River Flood Mapping | South Nation Conservation | 2024 | under review · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
69% of towns in Ontario have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Metcalfe has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Metcalfe’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in Metcalfe $0.15 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
At $0.15 per $1,000, Metcalfe carries roughly 5 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030).
Metcalfe doesn’t get its own earthquake risk figures; the ones here come from the city of Ottawa.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Above the middle in Ontario: Metcalfe’s $0.15 against a median of $0.043, with Alexandria highest at $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
15% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Metcalfe, which places it in the upper third.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Metcalfe’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
6.2% of homes tested around Metcalfe are over the radon guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Metcalfe’s area, at 6.2%, is close to the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Metcalfe’s area, at 6.2%, is above the median in Ontario (4%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
26% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have more homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Metcalfe’s 5–10% band, which holds 37%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The survey sampled homes around Metcalfe; it can’t tell you your basement’s level.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: one figure for all of the City of Ottawa Health Unit
Weather and fire alerts for Metcalfe
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Metcalfe; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Metcalfe, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Metcalfe’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metcalfe | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Greely 10,359 · 9.9 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Edwards - Carlsbad Springs 3,536 · 11 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | None listed |
| Embrun 23,655 · 14 km | Low | $0.19 | 6.1% | Yes |
| Osgoode - Vernon 6,398 · 14 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Findlay Creek 14,089 · 14 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | None listed |
| Manotick 8,770 · 16 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
None of the places around has more fire nearby than Metcalfe (low); Greely comes closest (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Metcalfe faces
What to do about the hazards Metcalfe faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap the water heater down.
- Keep 72 hours of supplies.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
- Is earthquake cover included?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Metcalfe floods.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Metcalfe sits in.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Metcalfe’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Metcalfe’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Metcalfe
Is Metcalfe at risk of wildfire?
No meaningful wildfire history near Metcalfe: 0% of nearby land since 1986, band low.
How big is the earthquake risk in Metcalfe?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Metcalfe $0.15 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
How is Metcalfe’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Metcalfe grades C+ for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Does Metcalfe flood?
Metcalfe’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
Is radon a problem in Metcalfe?
In Health Canada’s survey, 6.2% of 64 homes tested in Metcalfe’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).