Photo: Cantons-de-l'Est · CC BY-SA 4.0Flood mapping exists for Manotick: 5 on record, latest by Rideau Valley Conservation Authority
Wildfire barely registers for Manotick, at 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986 (0.000% a year). Seismic risk runs high: $0.15 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. In Health Canada’s survey, 6.2% of homes tested in Manotick’s area exceeded 200 Bq/m³, close to the typical 6.6%. Manotick grades C+ for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Manotick’s hazards
For Manotick, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Manotick faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Manotick: C+
For Manotick, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #703 of 866 in Ontario and #1,894 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The radon share rests on 64 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Few fires near Manotick: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Manotick’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Manotick burns at 0.000% a year, low against 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
Close to Manotick there is little to burn (3.6% forest fuel within 5 km), but 8.4% of the land within 25 km is forest.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Little or nothing burns around Manotick in a typical year; 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario share that, and Sioux Lookout leads at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are above the low band, which holds 92%; Manotick, at a rounded zero, is far from them.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Manotick is on the flood map inventory: 5 studies, latest by Rideau Valley Conservation Authority
Flood studies whose area touches Manotick, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
5 studies on the inventory touch Manotick, the newest Rideau Valley Conservation Authority’s from 2019, and their areas can be large, so they say maps exist, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mud Creek | Rideau Valley Conservation Authority | 2019 | final |
| Rideau River, Kars to Burrits Rapids | Rideau Valley Conservation Authority | 2017 | final |
| Rideau River, Hogs Back to Kars | Rideau Valley Conservation Authority | 2017 | final |
| Jock River | Rideau Valley Conservation Authority | 2005 | final |
| Steven Creek | Rideau Valley Conservation Authority | 1995 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
69% of towns in Ontario have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Manotick has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The studies touching Manotick lean recent: 3 of 5 date from the 2010s, the first from the 1990s.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching Manotick.
Flood studies don’t enter the grade; they are listed so you can open the official map for Manotick.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Shaking is Manotick’s costliest hazard: $0.15 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Roughly 5 times the typical $0.030: Manotick’s $0.15 marks real seismic exposure.
For earthquake risk, the only official count covers all of the city of Ottawa, Manotick included.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Above the middle in Ontario: Manotick’s $0.15 against a median of $0.043, with Alexandria highest at $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
15% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Manotick, which places it in the upper third.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Only shaking damage to buildings in Manotick is counted; landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and fire after a quake aren’t.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon about average around Manotick: 6.2% over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
6.2% of tested homes around Manotick were over the guideline, much like the typical Canadian town at 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
The median in Ontario is 4% over 200 Bq/m³; the survey area around Manotick has 6.2%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns share Manotick’s band of 5 to 10%; 26% sit higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Health Canada advises testing every home, Manotick’s included, whatever the area’s figure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Data for radon tests covers the City of Ottawa Health Unit
Where to get warnings in Manotick
Alerts for Manotick come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Alert Ready carries evacuation orders for Manotick to phones; CWFIS shows the day’s fire danger.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Manotick’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manotick | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Riverside South - Leitrim 19,802 · 5.6 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Stonebridge - Half Moon Bay 28,714 · 6.1 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Chapman Mills 12,075 · 6.2 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Rideaucrest - Davidson Heights 13,998 · 6.9 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Greely 10,359 · 7.4 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Old Barrhaven East 23,585 · 8.0 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | None listed |
Riverside South - Leitrim (low) has the heaviest fire record of Manotick’s neighbours, and Manotick (low) matches or beats it.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Manotick faces
Practical steps for Manotick’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap the water heater down.
- Keep 72 hours of supplies.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
- Is earthquake cover included?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Manotick’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Manotick until then.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Manotick without grading them.
- Wildfire counts one way. For Manotick, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Manotick
Does Manotick flood?
A flood study covers Manotick on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
How is Manotick’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Manotick C+, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Is radon a problem in Manotick?
The area’s survey found 6.2% of 64 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Manotick.
How big is the earthquake risk in Manotick?
About $0.15 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Manotick.
Is Manotick at risk of wildfire?
Hardly at all on record: 0% of the land within 25 km of Manotick since 1986, a low band, though small grass fires aren’t mapped.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).