Photo: Bbadgett · CC BY-SA 3.0Muskoka Lakes faces fewer hazards than 92% of Canadian towns
The national fire record shows next to nothing around Muskoka Lakes, 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986 (0.000% a year). Seismic risk in Muskoka Lakes sits near the middle: $0.020 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Radon is lower than usual: 0.9% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Muskoka Lakes grades A for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Muskoka Lakes’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Muskoka Lakes: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Muskoka Lakes faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Muskoka Lakes grades A for hazard risk
Two inputs always count for Muskoka Lakes, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
Its place: #30 of 866 in Ontario and #282 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Muskoka Lakes: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Muskoka Lakes’ residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Fire claims 0.000% of the land around Muskoka Lakes each year, a low band, with the typical Canadian town at 0.000%.
No fire has burned within 5 km of Muskoka Lakes’ homes since 1986; the nearest burn is 5.2 km away.
Forest fuel covers 13% of the land close to Muskoka Lakes and 31% across 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Among the 871 towns in Ontario, Sioux Lookout burns fastest (0.16% a year); Muskoka Lakes is with the 638 near zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
The low band holds 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, and Muskoka Lakes sits at its very bottom; only 7.5% are above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
A flood study covers Muskoka Lakes, from District Municipality of Muskoka: 1 on the inventory
Flood studies whose area touches Muskoka Lakes, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
A 2024 study by District Municipality of Muskoka covers Muskoka Lakes, and its map, not the inventory, shows the zones.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| District of Muskoka Floodplain Mapping | District Municipality of Muskoka | 2024 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
69% of towns in Ontario have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Muskoka Lakes has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Muskoka Lakes’ homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Muskoka Lakes: $0.020 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Muskoka Lakes’ $0.020 is close to the typical town’s $0.030 (0.7 times as much).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk in Ontario peaks in Alexandria ($0.21); Muskoka Lakes, at $0.020, is below the median of $0.043.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Muskoka Lakes’ earthquake risk lands near the centre of Canada’s range; 64% of the 2,611 towns are higher.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Muskoka Lakes’ figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Little radon around Muskoka Lakes: 0.9% of area homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Radon runs below the typical Canadian town (6.6%) in Muskoka Lakes’ area, at 0.9%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Against the typical town in Ontario (4%), the area around Muskoka Lakes has fewer high tests: 0.9%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
The quietest radon band, under 5%, holds 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns and Muskoka Lakes; 63% sit higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A survey sample isn’t a map: any home in Muskoka Lakes can be high, and a three-month test is the only way to know.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: one figure for all of the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit
Weather and fire alerts for Muskoka Lakes
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Muskoka Lakes; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Muskoka Lakes, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Muskoka Lakes faces
What to do about the hazards Muskoka Lakes faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Muskoka Lakes’ homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Muskoka Lakes’.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Muskoka Lakes is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Muskoka Lakes.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Muskoka Lakes
Is radon a problem in Muskoka Lakes?
Around Muskoka Lakes, 109 survey homes were tested and 0.9% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
How is Muskoka Lakes’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Muskoka Lakes A, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Does Muskoka Lakes flood?
There is flood mapping for Muskoka Lakes on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
How big is the earthquake risk in Muskoka Lakes?
About $0.020 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Muskoka Lakes.
Is Muskoka Lakes at risk of wildfire?
Fire has reached 0% of the land around Muskoka Lakes since 1986 (last in 1999); at low, it neither helps nor hurts the grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).