Photo: JFVoll · CC BY-SA 4.0Flood mapping exists for Central Frederick: 1 on record, latest by Grand River Conservation Authority
The national fire record shows next to nothing around Central Frederick, 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986 (0.000% a year). NRCan expects $0.022 of shaking damage a year per $1,000 of buildings in Central Frederick, near the typical $0.030. In Health Canada’s survey, just 4% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Central Frederick grades A− for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Central Frederick’s hazards
For Central Frederick, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Central Frederick faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Central Frederick grades A− for hazard risk
Earthquake risk and radon make Central Frederick’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
Its place: #237 of 866 in Ontario and #594 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Little of the land around Central Frederick has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Central Frederick’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Forty years of fire maps put Central Frederick at 0.000% a year, low next to the typical Canadian town’s 0.000%.
Forest fuel is scarce around Central Frederick: 1.4% of the land within 5 km, 3.5% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Among the 871 towns in Ontario, Sioux Lookout burns fastest (0.16% a year); Central Frederick is with the 638 near zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Most of the country’s 2,610 towns are low-band (92%, against 7.5% above); around Central Frederick, burning rounds to zero.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Grand River Conservation Authority has mapped flooding for Central Frederick (1 study)
Flood studies whose area touches Central Frederick, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
A 2018 study by Grand River Conservation Authority covers Central Frederick, and its map, not the inventory, shows the zones.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grand River Regulatory Floodplain | Grand River Conservation Authority | 2018 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
69% of towns in Ontario have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Central Frederick has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood is shown here, never graded: a study says where a map exists, not how many of Central Frederick’s homes stand in a flood zone.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Central Frederick: $0.022 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
With $0.022 of shaking damage a year per $1,000, Central Frederick is about even with the typical $0.030 (0.7 times).
Figures for earthquake risk are published for the city of Kitchener as a whole, not for Central Frederick alone.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
At $0.022, Central Frederick is below the typical town in Ontario ($0.043); Alexandria is highest at $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Middle of the pack: 61% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have more earthquake risk than Central Frederick.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
For Central Frederick the model prices shaking damage to buildings, nothing more.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
4% of homes tested around Central Frederick are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Central Frederick’s area, at 4%, is below the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town, though any one home can still be high.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Central Frederick’s area, at 4%, is close to the median in Ontario (4%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Under 5% puts Central Frederick with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 63% have more high tests.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Health Canada advises testing every home, Central Frederick’s included, whatever the area’s figure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Data for radon tests covers the Waterloo Health Unit
Where to get warnings in Central Frederick
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Central Frederick; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Central Frederick, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Central Frederick’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Frederick | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Auditorium 3,918 · 0.8 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| City Commercial Core 2,581 · 0.8 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Cedar Hill 3,190 · 1.3 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Mt. Hope Huron Park 5,174 · 1.3 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Fairfield 3,497 · 1.3 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Mill Courtland Woodside Park 3,319 · 1.7 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
Among its neighbours Central Frederick has the most fire on record (low); Auditorium follows (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Central Frederick faces
Practical steps for Central Frederick’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Central Frederick.
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Central Frederick until then.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Central Frederick’s included.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Central Frederick without grading them.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Central Frederick
How big is the earthquake risk in Central Frederick?
About $0.022 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Central Frederick.
Is radon a problem in Central Frederick?
The area’s survey found 4% of 101 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Central Frederick.
Does Central Frederick flood?
A flood study covers Central Frederick on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
Is Central Frederick at risk of wildfire?
Very little by the national record: Central Frederick’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
How is Central Frederick’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Central Frederick grades A− for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).