Photo: Kevin M Klerks from Inverhuron, Canada · CC BY 2.0Flood mapping exists for Kincardine: 1 on record, latest by Saugeen Valley Conservation Authority
Wildfire isn’t Kincardine’s worry: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (0.000% a year). Seismic risk runs low: $0.012 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. In Health Canada’s survey, 11% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Kincardine grades B+ for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Kincardine’s hazards
For Kincardine, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Kincardine faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Kincardine grades B+ for hazard risk
For Kincardine, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #605 of 866 in Ontario and #1,387 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Wildfire is rare near Kincardine: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Kincardine’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Around Kincardine fire takes 0.000% of the land in a typical year, the typical Canadian town 0.000%, which is low.
Around Kincardine the forest is thin or far off: 4.1% of the land within 5 km and 3.4% within 25 km is forest fuel.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Of the 871 towns in Ontario, 638 have a burn rate that rounds to zero, Kincardine among them; Sioux Lookout leads at 0.16% a year.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are above the low band, which holds 92%; Kincardine, at a rounded zero, is far from them.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Kincardine is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Saugeen Valley Conservation Authority
Flood studies whose area touches Kincardine, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Saugeen Valley Conservation Authority holds the flood mapping that covers Kincardine (2024), linked below.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huron Kinloss Flood Hazard Mapping | Saugeen Valley Conservation Authority | 2024 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Its flood study puts Kincardine with 69% of towns in Ontario; Canada’s share is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood studies don’t enter the grade; they are listed so you can open the official map for Kincardine.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in Kincardine just $0.012 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Shaking costs the typical town $0.030 a year; in Kincardine it is only $0.012, 0.4 times as much.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Kincardine’s $0.012 sits under the median in Ontario, $0.043, and well under Alexandria’s $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Most of Canada’s 2,611 towns (84%) face more earthquake damage than Kincardine.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
For Kincardine the model prices shaking damage to buildings, nothing more.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
11% of homes tested around Kincardine are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
A higher share than most: 11% of tested homes around Kincardine, the typical Canadian town 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs higher around Kincardine than in most towns in Ontario: 11% over the guideline (4% is typical), 1% over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
4.6% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have a higher share of homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Kincardine, in the 10–20% band with 22%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Neighbouring homes in Kincardine can differ a lot; only a long-term test tells you about yours.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: one figure for all of the Grey Bruce Health Unit
Where to get warnings in Kincardine
Alerts for Kincardine come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Kincardine are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Kincardine’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kincardine | Low | $0.012 | 11% | Yes |
| Huron-Kinloss 8,445 · 19 km | Low | $0.012 | 11% | Yes |
The neighbour with the most fire is Huron-Kinloss (low), still no more than Kincardine (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Kincardine faces
Practical steps for Kincardine’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. For Kincardine, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Kincardine without grading them.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Kincardine’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Kincardine until then.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Kincardine
Is radon a problem in Kincardine?
The area’s survey found 11% of 98 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Kincardine.
Is Kincardine at risk of wildfire?
Very little by the national record: Kincardine’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Does Kincardine flood?
A flood study covers Kincardine on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
How is Kincardine’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Kincardine’s Hazard risk grade is B+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
How big is the earthquake risk in Kincardine?
About $0.012 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Kincardine.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).