Photo: Ymblanter · CC BY-SA 4.0Flood mapping exists for Fort Erie: 3 on record, latest by Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority
Fire has left almost no mark near Fort Erie: 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. Shaking is a bigger worry than in most places, at $0.065 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Fewer homes than usual carry radon here, 2% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Fort Erie grades B+ for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Fort Erie’s hazards
For Fort Erie, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Fort Erie faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Fort Erie grades B+ for hazard risk
Two inputs always count for Fort Erie, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
Its place: #474 of 866 in Ontario and #922 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Wildfire is rare near Fort Erie: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Fort Erie’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
With 0.000% burned a year, Fort Erie is among the many low-band places (the typical Canadian town 0.000%).
Around Fort Erie the forest is thin or far off: 2% of the land within 5 km and 1.4% within 25 km is forest fuel.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Fire has taken almost none of the land around Fort Erie, as for 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario; Sioux Lookout tops the list at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
The low band holds 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, and Fort Erie sits at its very bottom; only 7.5% are above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Flooding around Fort Erie is mapped in 3 studies, the newest by Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority
Flood studies whose area touches Fort Erie, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority and others have studied flooding in areas that include Fort Erie: 3 studies, the latest from 2009.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayers Creek | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2009 | final |
| Fort Erie Creeks | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2008 | final |
| TeeCreek | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Its flood study puts Fort Erie with 69% of towns in Ontario; Canada’s share is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Fort Erie.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Shaking is Fort Erie’s costliest hazard: $0.065 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
The typical town loses $0.030 a year to shaking; Fort Erie loses $0.065, 2.2 times as much.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The typical town in Ontario expects $0.043 a year; Fort Erie expects $0.065, and Alexandria $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
29% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Fort Erie, which places it in the upper third.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
For Fort Erie the model prices shaking damage to buildings, nothing more.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs low around Fort Erie: 2% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Fort Erie’s survey area reads 2% over the guideline, under the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Below the typical town in Ontario (4%) at 2%, the area around Fort Erie still had 2% of tests over 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
The quietest radon band, under 5%, holds 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns and Fort Erie; 63% sit higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Health Canada advises testing every home, Fort Erie’s included, whatever the area’s figure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests published for the Niagara Regional Area Health Unit, not by town
Where to get warnings in Fort Erie
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Fort Erie; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Fort Erie, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Fort Erie faces
What to do about the hazards Fort Erie faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Fort Erie.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Fort Erie sits in.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Fort Erie floods.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Fort Erie’s included.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Fort Erie
How big is the earthquake risk in Fort Erie?
About $0.065 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Fort Erie.
Is radon a problem in Fort Erie?
Around Fort Erie, 100 survey homes were tested and 2% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
How is Fort Erie’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Fort Erie’s Hazard risk grade is B+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Does Fort Erie flood?
Fort Erie’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
Is Fort Erie at risk of wildfire?
No meaningful wildfire history near Fort Erie: 0% of nearby land since 1986, band low.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).