Photo: Saskia2586 · CC BY-SA 3.0Elmira is on Canada’s flood inventory: 1 listed, led by Grand River Conservation Authority
Since 1986 almost nothing has burned near Elmira: 0% of the land within 25 km, or 0.000% a year. For earthquakes Elmira is middling, $0.020 a year per $1,000 against $0.030 for the typical town. Radon is lower than usual: 4% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Elmira grades A− for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Elmira’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Elmira: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Elmira faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Elmira: A−
Seismic risk and radon set Elmira’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #230 of 866 in Ontario and #574 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Elmira has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Elmira’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Low: the land around Elmira burns at 0.000% a year, where the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
Land that isn’t forest covers nearly all the ground around Elmira: forest fuel is 2.4% within 5 km and 4.7% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Sioux Lookout has the highest burn rate in Ontario, 0.16% a year; around Elmira, as around 638 of the 871 towns, it rounds to zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Elmira shares the low band with 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, its burn rate rounding to nothing; 7.5% burn faster.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
A flood study covers Elmira, from Grand River Conservation Authority: 1 on the inventory
Flood studies whose area touches Elmira, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
The flood study touching Elmira is Grand River Conservation Authority’s, dated 2018; its own map shows the zones street by street.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grand River Regulatory Floodplain | Grand River Conservation Authority | 2018 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Its flood study puts Elmira with 69% of towns in Ontario; Canada’s share is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Elmira.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Elmira: $0.020 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Earthquake losses in Elmira, $0.020 per $1,000, are in line with the typical $0.030 (0.7 times).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Below the middle in Ontario: Elmira’s $0.020 against a median of $0.043; Alexandria has $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Around half of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Elmira (64%).
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Elmira’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
4% of homes tested around Elmira are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Radon runs below the typical Canadian town (6.6%) in Elmira’s area, at 4%. Nobody publishes radon tests for Elmira alone, so this card uses the figure for the Waterloo Health Unit.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around Elmira, 4% of tests topped the guideline, about the same as the typical town in Ontario (4%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
63% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have a higher share of homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Elmira’s band, which holds 37%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Basements, soil and how a house is sealed decide its radon, so in Elmira only a test can say.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Elmira
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Elmira; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Smoke and fire warnings for Elmira come through Environment Canada and Alert Ready; the fire map is CWFIS’s.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Elmira’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elmira | Low | $0.020 | 4% | Yes |
| Bridgeport North 2,858 · 6.6 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Waterloo 142,450 · 8.2 km | Low | $0.019 | 4% | Yes |
| Bridgeport East 3,903 · 9.0 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Fairfield 3,497 · 9.5 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Mt. Hope Huron Park 5,174 · 9.9 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Central Frederick 5,895 · 11 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
None of the places around has more fire nearby than Elmira (low); Bridgeport North comes closest (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Elmira faces
Practical steps for Elmira’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Elmira’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Elmira.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Elmira takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Elmira’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Elmira
How is Elmira’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Elmira grades A− for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Does Elmira flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Elmira; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
Is Elmira at risk of wildfire?
Hardly at all on record: 0% of the land within 25 km of Elmira since 1986, a low band, though small grass fires aren’t mapped.
Is radon a problem in Elmira?
4% of the 101 homes Health Canada tested around Elmira topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
How big is the earthquake risk in Elmira?
Expected earthquake damage in Elmira comes to $0.020 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).