Hazard risk in Royal Orchard is lower than in 89% of Canadian towns
Wildfire isn’t Royal Orchard’s worry: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (0.000% a year). Shaking is about as much of a worry in Royal Orchard as in most places, at $0.030 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). In Health Canada’s survey, just 0% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Hazard risk gives Royal Orchard a grade of A, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Royal Orchard’s hazards
For Royal Orchard, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Royal Orchard faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Royal Orchard grades A for hazard risk
Seismic risk and radon set Royal Orchard’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #105 of 866 in Ontario and #417 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Little of the land around Royal Orchard has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Royal Orchard’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
The yearly burn rate around Royal Orchard is 0.000%, low beside 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
Only 4.6% of the land within 25 km of Royal Orchard is forest fuel, and 0.2% close in.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Little or nothing burns around Royal Orchard in a typical year; 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario share that, and Sioux Lookout leads at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are in the low band and 7.5% above it; Royal Orchard is among the many where the yearly burn rate rounds to zero.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Flooding around Royal Orchard is mapped in 2 studies, the newest by Toronto Regional Conservation Authority
Flood studies whose area touches Royal Orchard, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
For Royal Orchard the inventory points to 2 studies, most recently Toronto Regional Conservation Authority’s in 2021.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Floodline Consolidation | Toronto Regional Conservation Authority | 2021 | final |
| Fletcher's Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2005 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are common in Ontario: 69% of towns have one, against 58% nationally, and Royal Orchard is among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The 2 studies touching Royal Orchard are spread over time, from the 2000s to the 2020s.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching Royal Orchard.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Royal Orchard’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in Royal Orchard $0.030 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
At $0.030 per $1,000, Royal Orchard’s earthquake risk is the typical Canadian town’s $0.030.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The typical town in Ontario expects $0.043 a year in shaking damage; Royal Orchard expects less, $0.030, and Alexandria the most, $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Neither high nor low for Canada: 48% of the 2,611 towns expect more damage than Royal Orchard.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
What a quake does after the shaking, fire, landslides, tsunami, falls outside NRCan’s figure for Royal Orchard.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean). · Earthquake risk: the city of Brampton
Radon runs low around Royal Orchard: 0% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Royal Orchard’s area, at 0%, is below the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town, though any one home can still be high. Figures for radon tests are published for the Peel Regional Health Unit as a whole, not for Royal Orchard alone.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Against the typical town in Ontario (4%), the area around Royal Orchard has fewer high tests: 0%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Under 5% puts Royal Orchard with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 63% have more high tests.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Radon varies from house to house in Royal Orchard, so the survey is a reason to test, not a result for yours.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Royal Orchard
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Royal Orchard; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Royal Orchard, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Royal Orchard
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Orchard | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
| Centre 17,851 · 1.7 km | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
| Fletchers Creek Village / Lundy Village 13,934 · 1.7 km | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
| Fletchers Meadow South 9,214 · 2.1 km | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
| Northwood Park 10,402 · 2.2 km | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
| Downtown 15,686 · 2.3 km | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
| Lakelands Village 9,636 · 2.9 km | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
None of the places around has more fire nearby than Royal Orchard (low); Centre comes closest (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Royal Orchard faces
Practical steps for Royal Orchard’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Royal Orchard’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Wildfire counts one way. For Royal Orchard, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Royal Orchard.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Royal Orchard is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Royal Orchard
Is Royal Orchard at risk of wildfire?
Hardly at all on record: 0% of the land within 25 km of Royal Orchard since 1986, a low band, though small grass fires aren’t mapped.
Does Royal Orchard flood?
There is flood mapping for Royal Orchard on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
How big is the earthquake risk in Royal Orchard?
About $0.030 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Royal Orchard.
How is Royal Orchard’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Royal Orchard’s Hazard risk grade is A, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is radon a problem in Royal Orchard?
The area’s survey found 0% of 90 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Royal Orchard.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).