Photo: Sikander Iqbal · CC BY-SA 4.0Downtown faces fewer hazards than 89% of Canadian towns
Since 1986 almost nothing has burned near Downtown: 0% of the land within 25 km, or 0.000% a year. Earthquake risk in Downtown is ordinary: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.030 a year per $1,000 of value, close to the typical town’s $0.030. Fewer homes than usual carry radon here, 0% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Hazard risk gives Downtown a grade of A, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Downtown’s hazards
For Downtown, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Downtown faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Downtown grades A for hazard risk
The grade weighs Downtown’s seismic risk and radon equally, and wildfire is one-sided: a high band counts against a town, a low one earns nothing.
Its place: #105 of 866 in Ontario and #417 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Few fires near Downtown: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Downtown’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
The land within 25 km of Downtown burns at 0.000% a year on average, the low band; the typical Canadian town: 0.000%.
Around Downtown the forest is thin or far off: 0.2% of the land within 5 km and 3.8% within 25 km is forest fuel.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Among the 871 towns in Ontario, Sioux Lookout burns fastest (0.16% a year); Downtown is with the 638 near zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are above the low band, which holds 92%; Downtown, at a rounded zero, is far from them.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Flooding around Downtown is mapped in 2 studies, the newest by Toronto Regional Conservation Authority
Flood studies whose area touches Downtown, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
2 studies on the inventory touch Downtown, the newest Toronto Regional Conservation Authority’s from 2021, and their areas can be large, so they say maps exist, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Floodline Consolidation | Toronto Regional Conservation Authority | 2021 | final |
| Fletcher's Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2005 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are common in Ontario: 69% of towns have one, against 58% nationally, and Downtown is among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The 2 studies touching Downtown are spread over time, from the 2000s to the 2020s.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching Downtown.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Downtown floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in Downtown $0.030 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Downtown’s $0.030 matches the typical town’s $0.030.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
At $0.030, Downtown is below the typical town in Ontario ($0.043); Alexandria is highest at $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Around half of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Downtown (48%).
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Only shaking damage to buildings in Downtown is counted; landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and fire after a quake aren’t.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean). · Not measured by town: earthquake risk (the city of Brampton)
Radon runs low around Downtown: 0% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Shared with the rest of the Peel Regional Health Unit: radon tests
Where the typical Canadian town has 6.6% of homes over the guideline, Downtown’s area has fewer, 0%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs lower around Downtown than in most towns in Ontario: 0% against 4%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
The quietest radon band, under 5%, holds 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns and Downtown; 63% sit higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A low area share in Downtown doesn’t clear a house, nor does a high one condemn it: test.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Downtown
Alerts for Downtown come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Alert Ready carries evacuation orders for Downtown to phones; CWFIS shows the day’s fire danger.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Downtown’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downtown | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
| Northwood Park 10,402 · 2.0 km | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
| Peel Village 13,037 · 2.1 km | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
| Ridgehill / Armbro Heights 14,321 · 2.2 km | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
| Centre 17,851 · 2.2 km | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
| Royal Orchard 15,006 · 2.3 km | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
| Fletchers West 18,552 · 2.6 km | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
Among its neighbours Downtown has the most fire on record (low); Northwood Park follows (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Downtown faces
What to do about the hazards Downtown faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Downtown takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Downtown.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Downtown’s included.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Downtown.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Downtown
Is Downtown at risk of wildfire?
Very little by the national record: Downtown’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Is radon a problem in Downtown?
In Health Canada’s survey, 0% of 90 homes tested in Downtown’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
How is Downtown’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Downtown grades A for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Does Downtown flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Downtown; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
How big is the earthquake risk in Downtown?
About $0.030 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Downtown.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).