Photo: Onasill ~ Bill - Onasill ~ 109 Millions Views · CC BY-SA 2.0Aurora faces fewer hazards than 96% of Canadian towns
No wildfire is mapped within 25 km of Aurora’s homes since 1986 (0% of the land, 0.001% a year). Seismic risk in Aurora sits near the middle: $0.020 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. In Health Canada’s survey, just 0% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Aurora grades A+ for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Aurora’s hazards
For Aurora, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Aurora faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Aurora grades A+ for hazard risk
For Aurora, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #16 of 866 in Ontario and #239 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Few fires near Aurora: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Past fire around Aurora’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Low: the land around Aurora burns at 0.001% a year, where the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
No fire has burned within 5 km of Aurora’s homes since 1986; the nearest burn is 18 km away.
About as much forest grows next to Aurora’s homes (8.7% within 5 km) as across 25 km (8.4%).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
In the top quarter in Ontario: Aurora ranks 83rd of 871 at 0.001% a year, with Sioux Lookout first at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Low, like 92% of the country’s 2,610 towns: the land around Aurora burns, but slower than in the 7.5% above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Aurora is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Toronto Regional Conservation Authority
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Aurora: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
The flood study touching Aurora is Toronto Regional Conservation Authority’s, dated 2021; its own map shows the zones street by street.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Floodline Consolidation | Toronto Regional Conservation Authority | 2021 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Its flood study puts Aurora with 69% of towns in Ontario; Canada’s share is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Aurora.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in Aurora $0.020 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
0.7 times the typical $0.030: Aurora’s $0.020 is ordinary.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Aurora’s $0.020 sits under the median in Ontario, $0.043, and well under Alexandria’s $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Aurora sits mid-range among Canada’s 2,611 towns: 64% expect more shaking damage.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
For Aurora the model prices shaking damage to buildings, nothing more.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Little radon around Aurora: 0% of area homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Radon runs below the typical Canadian town (6.6%) in Aurora’s area, at 0%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs lower around Aurora than in most towns in Ontario: 0% against 4%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
63% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have a higher share of homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Aurora’s band, which holds 37%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A low area share in Aurora doesn’t clear a house, nor does a high one condemn it: test.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Area behind the radon tests figures: the York Regional Health Unit
Where to get warnings in Aurora
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Aurora; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Smoke and fire warnings for Aurora come through Environment Canada and Alert Ready; the fire map is CWFIS’s.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Aurora’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora | Low | $0.020 | 0% | Yes |
| Newmarket 95,763 · 5.4 km | Low | $0.019 | 0% | None listed |
| King 29,077 · 11 km | Low | $0.021 | 0% | Yes |
| East Gwillimbury 42,989 · 12 km | Low | $0.023 | 0% | None listed |
| Richmond Hill 222,031 · 13 km | Low | $0.028 | 0% | Yes |
| Cathedraltown 11,029 · 14 km | Low | $0.034 | 0% | Yes |
| Hope 6,997 · 14 km | Low | $0.028 | 0% | Yes |
Nowhere around Aurora burns more: Newmarket, the closest rival, is low to its low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Aurora faces
Practical steps for Aurora’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Aurora’s included.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Aurora without grading them.
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Aurora until then.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Aurora.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Aurora
How big is the earthquake risk in Aurora?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Aurora $0.020 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
How is Aurora’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Aurora A+, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Is radon a problem in Aurora?
0% of the 95 homes Health Canada tested around Aurora topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Is Aurora at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: Aurora’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2006), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Does Aurora flood?
A flood study covers Aurora on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).