Photo: P199 · CC BY-SA 3.0Flood mapping exists for Rothesay: 1 on record, latest by Service New Brunswick - GeoNB
Fire has left almost no mark near Rothesay: 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. Seismic risk in Rothesay sits near the middle: $0.033 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Radon is higher than usual: 11% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Hazard risk gives Rothesay a grade of C+, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Rothesay’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Rothesay: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Rothesay faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Rothesay: C+
For Rothesay, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #9 of 60 in New Brunswick and #1,853 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Rothesay: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Past fire around Rothesay’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
The land within 25 km of Rothesay burns at 0.000% a year on average, the low band; the typical Canadian town: 0.000%.
The 5 km ring around Rothesay’s homes is clear of burns since 1986, the nearest 25 km out.
About as much forest grows next to Rothesay’s homes (78% within 5 km) as across 25 km (83%).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in New Brunswick · highest of 60
Fire has taken almost none of the land around Rothesay, as for 15 of the 60 towns in New Brunswick; Tracadie tops the list at 0.28%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
The low band holds 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, and Rothesay sits at its very bottom; only 7.5% are above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
A flood study covers Rothesay, from Service New Brunswick - GeoNB: 1 on the inventory
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Rothesay: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
Service New Brunswick - GeoNB studied flooding in an area that includes Rothesay (2020); open its map to see which streets lie in a flood zone.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inland Flood Mapping in New Brunswick and Updated Sea-Level Rise and Flooding Estimates for New Brunswick Coastal Sections 2020 | Service New Brunswick - GeoNB | 2020 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Its flood study puts Rothesay with 93% of towns in New Brunswick; Canada’s share is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood mapping is shown for Rothesay to be opened and checked, never turned into a grade.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Expected shaking damage in Rothesay: $0.033 a year per $1,000
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
At $0.033 per $1,000, Rothesay’s earthquake risk is about the typical Canadian town’s ($0.030; 1.1 times).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Shaking damage around Rothesay runs at $0.033 a year, near the $0.036 of the typical town in New Brunswick; St. Stephen has $0.16.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Rothesay sits mid-range among Canada’s 2,611 towns: 48% expect more shaking damage.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Rothesay’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs high around Rothesay: 11% of tested homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Area-wide: radon tests, counted over the Region 2 health region
the typical Canadian town has 6.6% over the guideline; Rothesay’s area has 11%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Below the typical town in New Brunswick (20%) at 11%, the area around Rothesay still had 1% of tests over 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
More high tests than most: Rothesay sits in a band that only 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns share, with 4.6% above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Rothesay can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Rothesay
Alerts for Rothesay come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Alert Ready carries evacuation orders for Rothesay to phones; CWFIS shows the day’s fire danger.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Rothesay’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rothesay | Low | $0.033 | 11% | Yes |
| Quispamsis 20,240 · 4.2 km | Low | $0.031 | 11% | Yes |
| Kingston 3,577 · 12 km | Low | $0.029 | 11% | Yes |
| Saint John 79,371 · 13 km | Low | $0.033 | 11% | Yes |
| Simonds 4,263 · 14 km | Low | $0.026 | 11% | Yes |
| Hampton 3,268 · 15 km | Low | $0.023 | 11% | Yes |
| Westfield 2,245 · 16 km | Moderate | $0.031 | 11% | Yes |
The heaviest fire record nearby is Westfield’s, moderate to Rothesay’s low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Rothesay faces
Practical steps for Rothesay’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Rothesay’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Rothesay sits in.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Rothesay floods.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Rothesay’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Rothesay
Is radon a problem in Rothesay?
11% of the 101 homes Health Canada tested around Rothesay topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Is Rothesay at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: Rothesay’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2024), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
How big is the earthquake risk in Rothesay?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Rothesay $0.033 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Does Rothesay flood?
Rothesay’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
How is Rothesay’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Rothesay’s Hazard risk grade is C+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).