Photo: Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit , Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center · Public domainHigh radon around Elgin: 20% of homes tested in the area exceed 200 Bq/m³
Fire seldom reaches Elgin: since 1986, 0.1% of the land within 25 km has burned (0.002% a year). NRCan expects $0.022 of shaking damage a year per $1,000 of buildings in Elgin, near the typical $0.030. Hazard risk gives Elgin a grade of C, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Elgin’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Elgin: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Elgin faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Elgin grades C for hazard risk
Seismic risk and radon set Elgin’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Elgin: 0.1% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Past fire around Elgin’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Around Elgin fire takes 0.002% of the land in a typical year, the typical Canadian town 0.000%, which is low.
Elgin’s homes have had no fire within 5 km since 1986; the closest was 14 km away.
About as much forest grows next to Elgin’s homes (74% within 5 km) as across 25 km (74%).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in New Brunswick · highest of 61
Elgin burns at 0.002% a year, 30th of 61 towns in New Brunswick; the leader, Tracadie, reaches 0.28%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Low, like 92% of the country’s 2,610 towns: the land around Elgin burns, but slower than in the 7.5% above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for Elgin
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Elgin: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
An empty entry for Elgin on the inventory isn’t proof of safety; ask locally for flood maps.
Towns with a flood study on file
93% of towns in New Brunswick have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Elgin is not yet one of them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Elgin.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Ordinary seismic risk in Elgin: $0.022 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
0.7 times the typical $0.030: Elgin’s $0.022 is ordinary.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk in New Brunswick peaks in St. Stephen ($0.16); Elgin, at $0.022, is below the median of $0.036.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Elgin’s earthquake risk lands near the centre of Canada’s range; 61% of the 2,611 towns are higher.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Elgin’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs high around Elgin: 20% of tested homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Area-wide: radon tests, counted over the Region 1 health region
Elgin’s area, at 20%, is above the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town, so testing is worth more here than most places.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Elgin’s area, at 20%, is close to the median in New Brunswick (20%); 3.7% of its tests passed 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Elgin is in the 10–20% band, with 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; only 4.6% are higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A survey sample isn’t a map: any home in Elgin can be high, and a three-month test is the only way to know.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Elgin
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Elgin; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Elgin, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Elgin’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elgin | Low | $0.022 | 20% | None listed |
| Petitcodiac 1,610 · 14 km | Low | $0.026 | 20% | None listed |
Petitcodiac burns a little more than Elgin, in the same low band (low here).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Elgin faces
Practical steps for Elgin’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Elgin’s.
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Elgin until then.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Elgin’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Elgin without grading them.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Elgin
Is Elgin at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: Elgin’s band is low, with 0.1% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2013), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Is radon a problem in Elgin?
20% of the 107 homes Health Canada tested around Elgin topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Does Elgin flood?
No study on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory covers Elgin (0), which doesn’t mean it has never been mapped, so ask the municipality.
How big is the earthquake risk in Elgin?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Elgin’s buildings lose $0.022 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
How is Elgin’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Elgin C, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).