Photo: Phil284 · CC BY-SA 3.0High radon around Cocagne: 20% of homes tested in the area exceed 200 Bq/m³
Fire seldom reaches Cocagne: since 1986, 0.1% of the land within 25 km has burned (0.002% a year). Seismic risk in Cocagne sits near the middle: $0.035 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Cocagne grades C− for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Cocagne’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Cocagne: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Cocagne faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Cocagne grades C− for hazard risk
For Cocagne, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #30 of 60 in New Brunswick and #2,345 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Cocagne: 0% within 5 km, 0.1% within 25 km
Past fire around Cocagne’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Low: the land around Cocagne burns at 0.002% a year, where the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
Nothing inside 5 km of Cocagne’s homes has burned since 1986, and the nearest scar is 9.0 km off.
Forest thickens with distance from Cocagne: 59% of the land within 5 km, 71% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in New Brunswick · highest of 60
Cocagne burns at 0.002% a year, 30th of 60 towns in New Brunswick; the leader, Tracadie, reaches 0.28%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
The low band takes in 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, Cocagne among them, though its rate is above zero; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Cocagne is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Service New Brunswick - GeoNB
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Cocagne: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
One study on the inventory touches Cocagne, Service New Brunswick - GeoNB’s from 2020, and its area can be large, so it says a map exists, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inland Flood Mapping in New Brunswick and Updated Sea-Level Rise and Flooding Estimates for New Brunswick Coastal Sections 2020 | Service New Brunswick - GeoNB | 2020 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Its flood study puts Cocagne with 93% of towns in New Brunswick; Canada’s share is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood is shown here, never graded: a study says where a map exists, not how many of Cocagne’s homes stand in a flood zone.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Cocagne: $0.035 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Earthquake losses in Cocagne, $0.035 per $1,000, are in line with the typical $0.030 (1.2 times).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Typical for its province: Cocagne at $0.035 beside a median in New Brunswick of $0.036, with St. Stephen on top at $0.16.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Middle of the pack: 46% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have more earthquake risk than Cocagne.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Cocagne’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
20% of homes tested around Cocagne are over the radon guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Cocagne’s area, at 20%, is above the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town, so testing is worth more here than most places.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
3.7% of tests around Cocagne passed 600 Bq/m³; over 200, its 20% matches the median in New Brunswick, 20%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
More high tests than most: Cocagne sits in a band that only 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns share, with 4.6% above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Cocagne can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: one figure for all of the Region 1 health region
Weather and fire alerts for Cocagne
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Cocagne; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Cocagne, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Cocagne
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cocagne | Low | $0.035 | 20% | Yes |
| Dundas 4,733 · 6.7 km | Low | $0.033 | 20% | Yes |
| Saint-Antoine 1,880 · 9.0 km | Low | $0.040 | 20% | None listed |
| Bouctouche 2,678 · 14 km | Low | $0.039 | 20% | Yes |
| Shediac 5,699 · 16 km | Low | $0.036 | 20% | Yes |
| Wellington 3,458 · 17 km | Low | $0.038 | 20% | Yes |
| Saint Mary 2,083 · 17 km | Low | $0.036 | 20% | Yes |
Saint-Antoine burns a little more than Cocagne, in the same low band (low here).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Cocagne faces
Practical steps for Cocagne’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Cocagne’s.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Cocagne is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Cocagne’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Cocagne.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Cocagne
How is Cocagne’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Cocagne grades C− for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Is Cocagne at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: Cocagne’s band is low, with 0.1% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2025), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Does Cocagne flood?
There is flood mapping for Cocagne on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
How big is the earthquake risk in Cocagne?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Cocagne $0.035 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Is radon a problem in Cocagne?
20% of the 107 homes Health Canada tested around Cocagne topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).