Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0Hazard risk in The Pas is higher than in 95% of Canadian towns
Fire is a regular visitor: 11% of the land within 25 km of The Pas has burned since 1986 (0.29% a year). Earthquakes matter little: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.005 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. In Health Canada’s survey, 12% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). The Pas grades D− for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about The Pas’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for The Pas: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What The Pas faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in The Pas: D−
Seismic risk and radon set The Pas’ grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #181 of 185 in Manitoba and #2,544 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
A high wildfire band for The Pas: 3.1% within 5 km, 11% within 25 km
Past fire around The Pas’ homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
At 0.29% of the land a year, The Pas’ burn rate is high, many times the typical Canadian town’s 0.000%.
The ring nearest The Pas is the most wooded: 55% forest fuel within 5 km against 35% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 189
At 0.29% a year, The Pas is near the top in Manitoba: 5th of 189, behind Flin Flon (Part) (1.68%).
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Just 1.9% of Canada’s 2,610 towns burn fast enough for the high band where The Pas sits; 0.2% burn faster.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The Pas is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for The Pas: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
A 2025 study by Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure covers The Pas, and its map, not the inventory, shows the zones.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hydrodynamic Modelling Study of the Saskatchewan, Carrot, and Pasquia Rivers - The Pas | Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure | 2025 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Mapping in Manitoba reaches 18% of towns, The Pas among them, below the 58% across Canada.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood is shown here, never graded: a study says where a map exists, not how many of The Pas’ homes stand in a flood zone.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Low seismic risk in The Pas: $0.005 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
At $0.005 per $1,000, The Pas carries 0.2 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030): low.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Typical for its province: The Pas at $0.005 beside a median in Manitoba of $0.006, with Virden on top at $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nearly every one of Canada’s 2,611 towns (96%) expects more shaking damage than The Pas.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in The Pas’ figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in The Pas: 12% of area homes were over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
More homes than usual test high around The Pas: 12% against 6.6% for the typical Canadian town. The Pas doesn’t get its own radon tests figures; the ones here come from the Norman health region.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Ordinary for towns in Manitoba at 12% over 200 Bq/m³ (12% is the median), the area around The Pas had 0.5% over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
4.6% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have a higher share of homes over 200 Bq/m³ than The Pas, in the 10–20% band with 22%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The survey sampled homes around The Pas; it can’t tell you your basement’s level.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for The Pas
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for The Pas; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Smoke and fire warnings for The Pas come through Environment Canada and Alert Ready; the fire map is CWFIS’s.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around The Pas
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Pas | High | $0.005 | 12% | Yes |
| Opaskwayak Cree Nation 21E 2,184 · 3.8 km | High | $0.005 | 12% | Yes |
| Division No. 21, Unorganized 1,820 · 19 km | High | $0.004 | 12% | Yes |
The fire record around Division No. 21, Unorganized is a touch heavier than The Pas’, but the band is the same: high (here high).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what The Pas faces
Practical steps for The Pas’ hazards, most pressing first.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- How close is the forest edge?
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of The Pas’ homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, The Pas takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as The Pas’.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in The Pas.
Questions about flooding and hazards in The Pas
How is The Pas’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives The Pas D−, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Does The Pas flood?
The inventory lists a study touching The Pas; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
Is The Pas at risk of wildfire?
It is: 11% of the land within 25 km of The Pas has burned since 1986, the latest in 2025, which puts it in the high band that lowers Risk.
Is radon a problem in The Pas?
12% of the 212 homes Health Canada tested around The Pas topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
How big is the earthquake risk in The Pas?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in The Pas $0.005 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).