Hazard risk in Division No. 21, Unorganized is higher than in almost every Canadian town
Wildfire is a real hazard for Division No. 21, Unorganized: 28% of the land within 25 km has burned since 1986, 0.75% a year, in the high band. Earthquakes matter little: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.004 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. Radon is higher than usual: 12% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Hazard risk gives Division No. 21, Unorganized a grade of D−; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Division No. 21, Unorganized’s hazards
For Division No. 21, Unorganized, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Division No. 21, Unorganized faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Division No. 21, Unorganized: D−
Seismic risk and radon set Division No. 21, Unorganized’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Fire country: 28% of the land within 25 km of Division No. 21, Unorganized has burned since 1986, 24% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Division No. 21, Unorganized’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
High: the land around Division No. 21, Unorganized burns at 0.75% a year, where the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
43% of the land within 5 km of Division No. 21, Unorganized is forest fuel, close to the 43% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 190
At 0.75% a year, Division No. 21, Unorganized is near the top in Manitoba: 2nd of 190, behind Flin Flon (Part) (1.68%).
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
High is rare: 1.9% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, Division No. 21, Unorganized among them, with 0.2% higher still.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
A flood study covers Division No. 21, Unorganized, from Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure : 1 on the inventory
Flood studies whose area touches Division No. 21, Unorganized, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
The flood study touching Division No. 21, Unorganized is Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure ’s, dated 2025; its own map shows the zones street by street.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hydrodynamic Modelling Study of the Saskatchewan, Carrot, and Pasquia Rivers - The Pas | Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure | 2025 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Only 18% of towns in Manitoba have a flood study, short of Canada’s 58%; Division No. 21, Unorganized is one of them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Division No. 21, Unorganized.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Low seismic risk in Division No. 21, Unorganized: $0.004 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Shaking costs the typical town $0.030 a year; in Division No. 21, Unorganized it is only $0.004, 0.1 times as much.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The typical town in Manitoba expects $0.006 a year in shaking damage; Division No. 21, Unorganized expects less, $0.004, and Virden the most, $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
At the bottom of Canada’s range, Division No. 21, Unorganized has 98% of the 2,611 towns above it.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Only shaking damage to buildings in Division No. 21, Unorganized is counted; landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and fire after a quake aren’t.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs high around Division No. 21, Unorganized: 12% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Measured across the Norman health region: radon tests
Division No. 21, Unorganized’s area, at 12%, is above the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town, so testing is worth more here than most places.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Division No. 21, Unorganized’s area, at 12%, is close to the median in Manitoba (12%); 0.5% of its tests passed 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
More high tests than most: Division No. 21, Unorganized sits in a band that only 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns share, with 4.6% above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Whatever Division No. 21, Unorganized’s area share, the reading that matters is your own home’s, over a winter.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Division No. 21, Unorganized
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Division No. 21, Unorganized; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Division No. 21, Unorganized, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Division No. 21, Unorganized’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division No. 21, Unorganized | High | $0.004 | 12% | Yes |
| Opaskwayak Cree Nation 21E 2,184 · 19 km | High | $0.005 | 12% | Yes |
| The Pas 5,634 · 19 km | High | $0.005 | 12% | Yes |
None of the places around has more fire nearby than Division No. 21, Unorganized (high); Opaskwayak Cree Nation 21E comes closest (high).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Division No. 21, Unorganized faces
Practical steps for Division No. 21, Unorganized’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- How close is the forest edge?
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Division No. 21, Unorganized.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Division No. 21, Unorganized’s included.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Division No. 21, Unorganized sits in.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Division No. 21, Unorganized floods.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Division No. 21, Unorganized
Is radon a problem in Division No. 21, Unorganized?
The area’s survey found 12% of 212 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Division No. 21, Unorganized.
Is Division No. 21, Unorganized at risk of wildfire?
Wildfire is Division No. 21, Unorganized’s main hazard, band high: 28% of the land within 25 km burned between 1986 and 2025.
Does Division No. 21, Unorganized flood?
Division No. 21, Unorganized’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
How big is the earthquake risk in Division No. 21, Unorganized?
About $0.004 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Division No. 21, Unorganized.
How is Division No. 21, Unorganized’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Division No. 21, Unorganized grades D− for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).